Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY)

• Price action started with a 1217 open and reached a high of 1230 before dropping to a low of 1167 and closing at 1179.
• A large bearish candle on 2025-1101 221500 marked a significant price drop from 1223 to 1182.
• RSI likely entered oversold territory during the late-night selloff but has since shown no strong recovery.
• Volume surged during the sharp decline, with a peak of 1273.484 units in the same candle.
• Price remains near key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1167 low to the 1230 high.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for TRUMPJPY showed a bearish reversal pattern from the 1230 high, with a large bearish candle followed by consolidation near support at 1179. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the decline from 1223 to 1182, suggesting strong bearish momentum. A doji appeared at 1179, indicating indecision, but it was followed by a continuation lower. The 1167 low appears to be a strong support level for the time being.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. On a daily chart, the 50-period MA would likely cross below the 200-period MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover. The 100-period MA is also below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a negative trend setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a significant bearish divergence during the decline from 1230 to 1179, with the histogram widening in negative territory. RSI appears to have entered oversold territory during the late-night selloff, but it has since remained in the 40–50 range, showing no strong recovery. This suggests that while the market may be oversold, buyers have yet to step in with conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session outside the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, indicating high volatility. A sharp move from 1230 to 1167 saw price compress near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the trend. If the 1167 level holds, a retracement into the 1185–1190 range could see price testing the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish move from 1223 to 1182, with a single candle accounting for over 1200 units of volume. This suggests strong conviction behind the move lower. However, volume has since dried up near 1179, which may indicate a lack of follow-through from sellers. The lack of volume during the consolidation phase could signal a potential reversal if buyers enter.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the swing high at 1230 to the swing low at 1167 sits near 1193, which could serve as a potential resistance level. The 38.2% level is around 1188, while the 50% level is at 1198. If price tests 1198 and faces resistance there, it could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential RSI-based backtest could be constructed using the 14-period RSI on the 15-minute chart, entering positions when RSI dips below 30 (indicating oversold conditions) and exiting on the next daily close. Given the recent volatility and RSI behavior around 1167–1179, a backtest would likely reveal whether such a strategy could profit in this environment. However, the current lack of a recognized TRUMPJPY price series prevents execution of the strategy at this time.