Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY)

• TRUMPJPY dropped 2.95% over 24 hours, closing at 904.0 after a bearish break and test of prior support.
• RSI approached oversold levels while volume surged during key declines, indicating strong bear pressure.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, suggesting potential for a breakout or continuation of the downtrend.
• A bullish reversal pattern formed near 880.0, though it failed to hold as volume dried up and bears retook control.
• Key resistance is now at 930.0, while support rests at 885.0, with Fibonacci levels confirming prior swing points.

The TRUMPJPY pair opened at 942.0 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 942.0 and a low of 880.0 before closing at 904.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Over the past 24 hours, the total volume was 746.2477 and the notional turnover was approximately ¥673,974.36 (using average close price of ¥904.0), suggesting active participation in bearish moves.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish breakdown from the 930–942 range following a large-volume candle (¥894.0–885.0), indicating a sharp shift in sentiment. A 20-period EMA sat below a 50-period EMA through the session, confirming a downtrend. On the daily chart, the price is trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias for the near term.

RSI hit 30.8 at 2025-10-12 01:15 ET, indicating oversold territory, though a rebound did not trigger a reversal. Instead, price continued lower, suggesting bears may dominate the short-term. MACD showed bearish divergence with the price, as the histogram narrowed while the pair continued to fall. Bollinger Bands had recently contracted before the price broke lower, a sign of increased volatility to follow.

Structure & Patterns

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 942.0 (16:00–16:15 ET), followed by a strong bearish candle to 894.0 (20:30–21:15 ET), a 4.3% drop in one candle. A failed bullish reversal at 885.0 (21:45–22:00 ET) highlighted weak buying pressure. The price is currently testing a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 904.0 from the 880–937 swing, a potential support or pivot level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart were below price for much of the session, suggesting bears remained in control. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs are all above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. If price continues lower, a retest of the 50–100 EMA crossover near 890.0 could trigger further bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below zero and remained negative, confirming bearish momentum. RSI remained in oversold territory for extended periods, but without a reversal, this suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. The divergence between RSI and price action implies caution—traders may wait for a bounce before assuming the trend is exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction between 21:30 and 01:15 ET, followed by a sharp break to the downside. Price has remained below the lower band since the drop to 894.0, indicating a high volatility phase. If the price rebounds, a return to the middle band (around 900–905) may be seen, but this is likely a consolidation phase rather than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key 20:30–21:15 ET and 01:15–02:00 ET drops, with total volume reaching 353.6559 during these two periods. However, volume dried up during the bounce attempts, suggesting weak conviction. Turnover spiked with these large-volume candles, reinforcing the bearish thesis. Divergence in volume and price during the 22:00–00:00 ET consolidation suggests a potential reversal may be forming, but this remains unconfirmed.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 904.0 is currently being tested. If this level fails, the next key level to watch is the 61.8% at 890.0. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger 880–937 range sits at 904.0, confirming this as a critical level. A break below 890.0 could trigger a test of 880.0 as a final support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below the 15-minute Bollinger Band low, confirmed by a bearish candlestick and a volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed above the 15-minute EMA or the previous high of the consolidation range. A trailing take-profit could be set on the 50% Fibonacci level or the next bearish target of 880.0. This strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the downtrend, particularly after the recent volatility spike and bearish momentum confirmation via MACD and RSI.