Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY)

• Price opened at 1,150.0 and closed at 1,099.0, declining 4.4% in 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked in the 15:30–16:00 ET window with a 47.0-point drop from 1,110.0 to 1,077.0.
• Notional turnover surged near the end of the 24-hour window amid a sharp price drop.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 15:30 ET as price breached 1,110.0 with heavy volume.
• RSI hit overbought levels early, then oversold late, signaling strong reversal potential.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1,150.0 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1,099.0 the next day at the same time. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 1,161.0 to a low of 1,077.0, with total volume of 1,328.77 and notional turnover of 1,554,515.14. Price declined in a bearish consolidation pattern, showing signs of exhaustion near the close.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at 1,161.0 multiple times but failed to break through, forming a bearish exhaustion pattern. A strong bearish engulfing candle appeared at 15:30 ET when price gapped down from 1,127.0 to 1,110.0. Later, a sharp drop to 1,077.0 at 15:45 ET created a new support level, with a potential retracement target at 1,110.0 (61.8% of the 15:30–16:00 move).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the final six hours of the session, confirming a bearish bias. The daily 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs suggest a longer-term bearish trend, with the 200-period SMA acting as a dynamic resistance level in recent days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 17:00 ET and stayed bearish through the session, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward trend. RSI moved from overbought territory early in the day to oversold levels by the close, suggesting potential short-term stabilization or a bounce could occur.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a tight Bollinger Band contraction from 19:00 to 21:00 ET, indicating low volatility and potential for a breakout or breakdown. The sharp drop to 1,077.0 at 15:45 ET saw price fall to the lower band, with a possible retracement toward the middle band at around 1,104.0. Volatility has since expanded, confirming the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish engulfing candle at 15:30 ET and again during the sharp drop at 15:45 ET, confirming the bearish break. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, showing strong alignment between volume and price. A divergence appears near the 1,161.0 level, where price hit resistance without significant volume, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15:30–16:00 ET drop of 47.0 points suggests a 61.8% retracement target of approximately 1,110.0, which aligns with a key support level. Earlier intra-day swings also show similar retracement levels, with the 38.2% level at 1,132.0 and the 61.8% at 1,110.0 acting as critical levels for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy would look to enter short positions when price breaks below the 61.8% retracement level (1,110.0) with volume above average and a bearish MACD crossover. Long positions could be considered if price retests this level and bounces with increasing volume and bullish divergence in RSI. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% retracement level (1,132.0) to manage risk. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing and exhaustion patterns observed in the 15-minute data and is consistent with the current bearish momentum.