Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) - 2025-11-08

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 1220 before retracting near 1185.
• Strong volume spikes at key breakouts and pullbacks show active participation.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions, but price remains within defined channels.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1160.0 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1187.0 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The price reached a high of 1220.0 and a low of 1159.0 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 15,868.58 lots, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥18,776,864 (calculated from volume × close prices across all intervals).

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a strong bullish bias during the evening hours on 2025-11-07, with a breakout from key resistance levels and a sustained rally into the early morning of 2025-11-08. However, a notable pullback followed after the 05:00 ET mark, suggesting possible profit-taking or short-term distribution. The price retested key support levels around 1170–1180 with bearish and bullish engulfing patterns forming at key inflection points.

Support levels appear to cluster around 1170–1185, while resistance is now forming around 1195–1205. A bullish 50-period moving average crossed above the 20-period line during the rally, confirming short-term strength. A contraction in Bollinger Band width during the late hours of 2025-11-07 suggested reduced volatility ahead of the breakout, which later expanded sharply with increased volume and price momentum.

The RSI indicator briefly entered overbought territory (above 70) during the 05:00–07:00 ET period, suggesting caution for further upward movement without fresh volume. However, the price remains within the upper channel of the bands, indicating continued bullish pressure. A divergence was noted between volume and price during the 08:00–10:00 ET period, with price stabilizing despite lower volume — a potential warning for momentum decay.

The Backtest Hypothesis would typically involve using MACD (12,26,9) and RSI (14) to identify Golden Cross and overbought conditions, triggering long entries with tight stops below key support levels. Given that the MACD data is not currently available for TRUMPJPY, a comparable approach using USD/JPY as a proxy could demonstrate how a strategy might perform in similar market environments. This would involve identifying early overbought conditions and bullish crossovers to enter longs with a trailing stop loss as the trend progresses.