Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) – 2025-10-08

• Price declined from 1160 to 1152 amid low-volume consolidation.
• Morning rally failed to hold, triggering bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during key swings but faded in final hours.
• Bollinger Bands tightened as price traded near the mean.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but price action lacked follow-through.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Yen (TRUMPJPY) opened at 1153.0 (12:00 ET–1), peaked at 1204.0, and fell to 1141.0 before settling at 1152.0 (12:00 ET). Total 24-hour volume was 1,521.5345, and total turnover reached 1,803,556.50. Price action was choppy for much of the session but accelerated in late hours, with a notable spike after 01:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

TRUMPJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 16:00–16:15 ET 15-minute candle, signaling a reversal from a short-lived bullish trend. A deep 1141.0 support level held multiple times, forming a key psychological floor. A doji formed at 09:45 ET, indicating indecision, and was followed by a bearish continuation. The 1160.0 area acted as a strong resistance, which was tested but failed to break decisively. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement aligned with 1151.0, where price found a temporary floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line (death cross), suggesting bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was just above the 200-period line, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias. Price remained below the 50-period line for the majority of the session, reinforcing a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with the line dipping below the signal line. The histogram contracted mid-session, reflecting reduced bearish momentum, but re-extended negatively in the final hours. RSI hit oversold territory (below 30) at 05:30 ET, but price failed to make a meaningful rebound, suggesting exhaustion among short-term traders. A bearish divergence was observed between RSI and price in the latter half of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved from 1141.0 to 1204.0, with the bands widening by nearly 6%. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, suggesting a weak bullish trend. A contraction in band width occurred in the 03:00–04:00 ET window, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown. Price closed near the middle band, indicating a neutral but consolidation-bound environment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 01:15 ET (571.0387) when price surged from 1151.0 to 1204.0, followed by a smaller but notable rally at 23:45 ET. Despite these spikes, price failed to maintain the higher levels, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. Turnover was also concentrated during these high-volume intervals, with little activity during the consolidation phase. A bearish volume divergence was evident between the early morning rally and the afternoon sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 15-minute swing from 1141.0 to 1204.0 showed 61.8% retracement at 1151.0, where price found support. The 38.2% retracement level at 1165.0 acted as resistance in the final hours. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement aligned with the 15-minute consolidation at 1151.0–1152.0, indicating potential convergence of support across timeframes.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on the close of a bearish engulfing candle that forms at a prior resistance level, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI entering oversold territory. Exit the position upon a 10% retracement or a bullish divergence in RSI. This setup, as seen at 16:00–16:15 ET and later at 09:45 ET, appears to capture a high-probability short-term bearish move when aligned with Fibonacci support levels. Given the current setup, this strategy may offer consistent returns if applied across multiple volatile swing points.