Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Price fell from $7.90 to $7.65 in 24 hours, closing near the session low.
• Volatility expanded midday with a 3.6% range, then contracted toward close.
• Volume spiked during the $7.83–$7.90 peak but faded into the session’s final hours.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with price below 20-period MA.
• Key support appears near $7.63–$7.67; watch for a potential rebound or breakdown.

Price Action and Initial Observations

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $7.79 (12:00 ET–1) and reached a high of $7.90 before trending downward to a low of $7.63 and closing near $7.65 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across 24 hours was 2,363,322.35, with turnover amounting to 16,311,337.73 USD. Price appears to have tested key psychological and support levels, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price formation included several notable patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the high of $7.90–$7.82 during the 17:00–17:15 ET period. A potential bearish breakout occurred from a consolidation zone between $7.80–$7.85. Key support levels appear at $7.63–$7.67, with $7.72–$7.78 as possible bounce zones. A doji formed near $7.75 at 07:15 ET, suggesting indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages (SMA) have both trended downward, with price closing below both at $7.65. The 20-period line is at ~$7.73, while the 50-period is at ~$7.78. On the daily chart, price remains below the 200-period (key long-term) SMA at ~$7.83. This suggests a bearish bias in both short- and longer-term timeframes.

MACD showed bearish divergence after the 18:00 ET period, with the line dipping below the signal line and remaining negative. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, indicating potential short-term reversal. However, this may also reflect continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility was most pronounced between 17:00–18:30 ET, with price reaching the upper band at $7.90. By 02:00 ET, volatility had contracted, and price settled into the lower half of the Bollinger Bands. This suggests potential consolidation or a pullback phase. If price breaks below the lower band, it may signal further bearish momentum.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the $7.83–$7.90 move, with a 24-hour peak of 59,980.464 at 23:00 ET, confirming the bearish reversal. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, peaking during the same period. Divergence between price and volume occurred in the final hours, with volume declining even as price remained below key levels. This could suggest waning bearish conviction or a potential short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent swing high of $7.90 and swing low of $7.63 define key Fibonacci levels. The 38.2% retracement at $7.73 and the 61.8% at $7.80 have acted as psychological and technical resistance. Price tested the 61.8% level twice and failed to hold it, suggesting bearish control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when price breaks below the 20-period SMA with a volume spike above the 30-day average and RSI below 50, targeting the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels as initial exits. A stop-loss near the upper Bollinger Band or above the most recent bullish candle could manage risk. Given the current price structure and volume confirmation, this strategy could align with the bearish momentum observed over the last 24 hours.