Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT)

• Price opened at $7.68, traded between $7.49 and $7.78, closing at $7.71 over 24 hours
• A sharp intraday dip to $7.49 was followed by a strong recovery toward midday
• Volatility spiked during the 04:15–05:45 ET window amid large volume surges
• RSI signaled oversold conditions before a rebound, confirming short-term momentum
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the drop, followed by an expansion

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $7.68 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at $7.71 at the same time on 2025-09-24, with a high of $7.78 and a low of $7.49 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 1,909,645.47 and total turnover reached $14,631,882.04, reflecting elevated trading activity, particularly after 04:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price carved out key support at $7.58–$7.61 and resistance around $7.70–$7.74. A large bearish candle formed during the 04:15–04:30 ET interval, signaling strong selling pressure. A bullish recovery followed, capped by a strong hammer-like formation at $7.71–$7.73 during 11:15–11:45 ET. The price then consolidated in a tight range, suggesting a potential reversal from oversold levels. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at the close, hinting at a short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged closely in the $7.65–$7.69 range, supporting a neutral to bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA hovered around $7.66, while the 200-period MA sat at $7.62, suggesting a potential retesting of the 200 MA as a possible support zone in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory just before the bullish recovery began, confirming the strength of the reversal. RSI dropped to 28 during the selloff, entering oversold territory, and then bounced sharply above 55, suggesting a reversal from a short-term bottom. The indicator has since consolidated around 56–61, indicating balanced momentum and the potential for continued consolidation or a breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was significantly compressed during the 03:45–04:15 ET window before expanding during the large move to $7.49. Price traded below the lower Bollinger Band for much of the 04:15–05:30 ET window, confirming an oversold condition. It then rebounded and moved above the middle band by midday, suggesting the price has found support and may continue to test the upper band again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 04:15–05:00 ET window, with over 400,000 units traded, and again during 11:15–12:00 ET. Turnover correlated closely with the price action, especially during the dip and subsequent bounce. However, a mild divergence was noted in the late afternoon when price continued to rally while volume showed a slight contraction, which may signal caution ahead of the next directional move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $7.49–$7.78 swing, key levels lie at $7.64 (38.2%), $7.68 (61.8%), and $7.72 (78.6%). The price found support at the 61.8% level and is currently testing the 78.6% retracement. A break above $7.72 could confirm a stronger bullish setup, with the next target near $7.76.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI is above 50, while volume has increased by at least 20% compared to the previous hour. A stop-loss is placed at the most recent swing low, and a take-profit is set at 1.5 times the entry risk. Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the confirmation from RSI and MACD, the strategy appears viable for short-term traders. The 15-minute timeframe aligns with the fast-moving nature of the pair and the presence of clear trend reversals and breakouts.