Market Overview: OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) - 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price surged over $8.70 before consolidating near $8.69.
• RSI suggests moderate momentum without overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded during key hourly spikes, notably post-18:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands indicate price containment within a moderate range.
• Volume and turnover show divergences during pullbacks, hinting at uncertainty.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $8.50 and reached a high of $8.76 before closing at $8.69 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour period saw a low of $8.47. Total volume traded amounted to 2.99 million units, while notional turnover reached approximately $25.8 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a strong bullish impulse from $8.50 to $8.76, followed by a consolidation phase. Key support levels appear to be forming around $8.65–$8.68, with resistance at $8.72–$8.74. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern between 19:30–20:00 ET and a bearish dark cloud cover from 23:30–00:00 ET. A doji at 01:45 ET suggests indecision in the market.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossing into a bullish bias during the afternoon hours, while the 50-period line on the daily chart remains above the 200-period, indicating an ongoing uptrend. The MACD histogram remained positive for most of the session, with a narrowing divergence at the end of the day, suggesting a possible slowdown in upward momentum. RSI reached 65 at its peak, indicating moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the $8.76 high, with price retreating toward the middle band before stabilizing near the lower band. Volatility spiked during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, driven by high-volume candlesticks. This expansion-contraction pattern suggests a temporary correction or consolidation in an otherwise bullish trend.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged above 90k units in the 18:15–19:45 ET period, coinciding with the peak at $8.76. Turnover mirrored the volume trend, peaking at $3.5 million during the same timeframe. However, in the early morning hours, volume dipped despite a price pullback, indicating a divergence that may hint at weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $8.47 to $8.76, price is now consolidating near the 61.8% level (~$8.68). On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement (~$8.67) is showing resistance, with potential for a breakout toward the 50% level (~$8.72) if buyers regain control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern when RSI is above 50 and volume exceeds the 7-day average. Stops could be placed just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with targets at the 78.6% and 100% retracements. Given today’s price action, such a strategy would have triggered a long signal at $8.52–$8.56 and exited near $8.71, yielding a ~8–9% return. While this approach appears profitable in isolation, it requires further testing over a larger sample of swings to validate robustness.