Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) — 24-Hour Summary (2025-11-12)

Summary
• Price action saw a bearish bias with a 24-hour low of 7.445 and close of 7.445.
• Strong volume expansion confirmed bearish momentum around key support levels.
• RSI hit oversold territory, while MACD signaled bearish momentum with a death-cross.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at 8.173 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 8.224 and a low of 7.445 before closing at 7.445 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 16,879,538.67 and a notional turnover of $135.8 million. Price action showed a bearish breakdown, with key support levels at 7.63–7.695 and 7.53–7.58 tested and breached.

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed multiple bearish patterns, including a large bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow doji near 7.80–7.83. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bearish trend. For daily timeframes, the 50-day moving average acted as resistance earlier, but with the recent close, it now lies well above the current price level.

MACD confirmed bearish momentum, with the line crossing below the signal line (a death-cross) on a declining price trend. RSI-14 reached an oversold level below 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce or accumulation. However, with price near the lower Bollinger Band and volatility widening, the bearish bias remains intact. The mid-7.70s appear to be the next potential support cluster for the next 24 hours.

The 24-hour volume was concentrated in the 2025-11-12 15:00–17:00 ET period, with a massive 474,098.15 contracts traded during a sharp selloff from 7.82 to 7.445. Notional turnover during this period exceeded $35 million, suggesting strong bearish conviction. While volume increased as price declined, price and volume aligned—no divergence was observed.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent 15-minute swing (8.224 to 7.445) suggest a 61.8% level at 7.61 and a 38.2% level at 7.86. Daily Fibonacci levels show 7.75 and 7.60 as potential psychological floors. Price is currently consolidating near the 7.53–7.58 level, suggesting a pause in the bearish momentum or a test of this support.

The “MACD Death-Cross + RSI Oversold” strategy on TRUMPUSDT has shown moderate effectiveness over the 3.5-year period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12. The back-test produced a total return of approximately 11.6% with an average trade return of 5.6%. While the strategy has captured strong bearish setups, it lacks additional risk controls like stop-losses or profit-taking rules. The recent bearish crossover and RSI in oversold territory suggest a potential entry under this strategy. However, bear in mind that this is a high-volatility asset, and additional risk management rules should be considered in live trading.