Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – 24-Hour Period Ending 2025-09-18 12:00 ET

• • •

• Price for TRUMPUSDT rose from $8.49 to $8.76, forming a bullish bias with strong volume in the second half of the day.
• A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around $8.69–$8.71, signaling possible continuation.
• High volatility and expanding Bollinger Bands reflect a shift from consolidation to momentum.
• Volume surged in the early hours of 2025-09-18, with a $96.887 million turnover spike.
• RSI crossed above 50, indicating a potential reversal from oversold to bullish territory.

Market Summary

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $8.49 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and traded to a high of $8.76 before settling at $8.62 as of 2025-09-18 12:00 ET. The 24-hour price action reflects a bullish bias, with total volume reaching 657,049 units and notional turnover at $5,694,609.

The price structure indicates a breakout from a tight consolidation range into a bullish trend, supported by a bullish engulfing pattern in the early hours of 2025-09-18. A strong volume surge during this breakout suggests conviction among bullish participants, while RSI and MACD signals align with an upward move.

Structure and Key Levels

The daily chart shows a clear support zone at $8.49–$8.51 and resistance forming above $8.72–$8.76, with a doji candle observed at $8.69 indicating indecision. The 15-minute timeframe reveals three key bullish candlestick formations, including the engulfing pattern at $8.69–$8.71, hammer at $8.67, and takuri pattern at $8.71–$8.72.

Key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (~$8.69) and 61.8% (~$8.72) align with areas of heavy buying, suggesting these levels could act as short-term support/resistance in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have flattened into a bullish crossover, with the 50-period MA rising above the 20-period. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 MA convergence shows a bullish slope, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with a clear bullish crossover in the last two hours. RSI has moved above 50, suggesting the pair may be transitioning from oversold territory to a neutral or bullish phase.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating increased volatility and a break from consolidation. The price has recently tested the upper band, signaling overbought conditions. A pullback to the lower band (~$8.62) may offer re-entry opportunities, especially with volume confirmation likely if the price retraces to $8.65–$8.67.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes a momentum-driven approach based on MACD and RSI crossovers in conjunction with Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, it triggers long entries when RSI crosses above 50 and MACD shows a bullish crossover, with additional stop-loss and take-profit levels aligned with key Fib levels.

Given today’s RSI crossover, MACD histogram expansion, and Fibonacci alignment, this strategy would have triggered a long signal between $8.69 and $8.72, with take-profit around $8.75 and stop-loss near $8.65.

Outlook and Risk

Looking ahead, TRUMPUSDT is likely to test the $8.75–$8.76 range over the next 24 hours, provided volume remains strong and RSI does not overextend. A retest of the $8.69–$8.71 level could confirm bullish momentum or trigger a pullback if volume declines and bearish indicators emerge.

Risks include a sharp correction if volume fails to follow through, RSI overextends above 60, or a bearish divergence appears in the MACD histogram. Investors should monitor the $8.62–$8.64 support level as a key area for a potential reversal or consolidation.