Market Overview: OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) — 24-Hour Analysis

• The 24-hour range for TRUMPUSDT was 7.5–7.95, with a 15-minute close near 7.56 after a sharp intraday spike to 7.76.
• Strong volume surges at 01:15 ET (2.2M USD turnover) and late consolidation suggest potential exhaustion at key resistance.
• RSI hit overbought levels briefly but closed near 55, indicating fading momentum and a possible pullback.
• Price tested 7.52 (a key support) multiple times, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forming at 05:45 ET.

OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at 7.61 on October 7, hit a high of 7.95, and closed at 7.56 by 12:00 ET on October 8. Total volume reached 1.67M TRUMP, with notional turnover of $11.68M across 24 hours. The pair experienced a sharp intraday spike due to a large bullish order flow, followed by a retracement.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a sharp bullish breakout at 01:15 ET, with a candle forming a tall bullish range of 7.53–7.95 (420+ pips). This was followed by a consolidation phase and a bearish correction that retested the 7.52 level, which held as a key support. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 05:45 ET, suggesting potential reversal. The daily chart shows a broader bullish divergence in volume and price, with price dipping to 7.5 but failing to break through a prior support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke above the 20SMA and 50SMA briefly before pulling back. The 50SMA (7.61) acted as a temporary resistance. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (7.65) and 100DMA (7.72) remain above the current price, suggesting a bearish bias in the longer term. The 200DMA (7.78) has not been tested yet but remains a key level to watch.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above zero at the start of the spike and showed a positive divergence before the correction. RSI surged into overbought territory (80+) during the breakout but closed at 55, indicating a loss of upward momentum. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram suggests weakening bullish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

The price spiked above the upper Bollinger Band during the 01:15 ET move and then retracted sharply back into the band, confirming a volatility expansion phase. The recent consolidation has seen price trade near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential support bounce at 7.52–7.54.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 01:15 ET with a massive 2.2M USD turnover (candle 25), coinciding with a 7.53–7.95 move. Subsequent candles showed a sharp drop in volume, suggesting exhaustion. A divergence between price and volume appears in the final 4 hours of the period, with bearish price action and declining volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the previous bullish move lies at 7.66. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels (7.56 and 7.58) have acted as temporary support/resistance. A retest of the 61.8% level may confirm a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering long on the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at 05:45 ET with a stop just below 7.52 and a target near 7.6 (the 50% retracement). A short position could be triggered after the 01:15 ET spike with a stop above the high of that candle (7.95) and a target near 7.56–7.52. This strategy would align with the observed momentum reversal and support retests, potentially capitalizing on the market’s mean-reverting behavior after a sharp move.