Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT): 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price surged from 7.84 to 8.47, ending at 8.47 after strong volume and momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions but with bullish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion, confirming high volatility.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether pair (TRUMPUSDT) opened at 7.84 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 9.12, a low of 7.63, and closed at 8.47 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The 24-hour volume totaled 65,066,997.116, with a notional turnover of approximately $550.7 million, signaling robust interest and trading activity.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bullish reversal pattern from 19:30 ET onwards, with a key support level forming around 7.63–7.68. This coincided with a bearish breakdown attempt that failed, followed by a sharp rebound and a large bullish candle at 04:30 ET, signaling strong buying pressure. A potential resistance zone is forming around 8.74–9.02, marked by several consolidation phases and failed breakouts. A bearish doji appeared at 09:45 ET, hinting at possible profit-taking.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA at 04:15 ET, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily scale, the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, supporting a long-term bullish trend. The price has consistently traded above the 50-day MA, reinforcing the upward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 04:00 ET and remained above the signal line, indicating strong momentum. The RSI reached overbought territory (>70) at 16:00 ET, but it has yet to form a bearish divergence with price, suggesting sustained buying interest. The RSI is currently at 67, signaling that the rally remains intact despite elevated levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:00–12:00 ET period, with price moving near the upper band at 09:45 ET and 15:45 ET. This suggests high volatility and a strong trending move. The bands have since begun to contract again, hinting that a consolidation or reversal may be imminent in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 04:30 ET and again at 09:45 ET, confirming key price movements. The 04:30 ET candle had a volume of 484,621.735, and the 09:45 ET candle saw 366,346.305 in volume, both well above the average 24-hour 15-minute bar. Notional turnover also rose sharply during these periods, aligning with price action and supporting the bullish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the low at 7.63 to the high at 9.12 show key levels at 38.2% (~8.35) and 61.8% (~8.06). The price stalled near the 38.2% level during the 14:45–15:00 ET window but broke through on strong volume. A retest of 8.35–8.47 may occur next, with a potential pullback to 8.06 if bearish pressure emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy assumes a fixed 5-day exit, using close prices to assess performance. This aligns with the current bullish momentum and trend-following nature of the pair, where holding time plays a critical role in capturing full move potential. Given the current position above key moving averages and strong volume signals, the pair appears well-positioned for a continuation of the trend. However, the overbought RSI and potential resistance at 8.74–9.02 could trigger a profit-taking phase. A 5-day holding period could capture a portion of the upside, but traders should closely monitor Fibonacci levels and volume divergences for early warning signs of exhaustion.