Market Overview: OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price opened at $7.283 and closed at $7.157 after volatile 24-hour trading.
• Notable bearish reversal patterns emerged late in the day.
• Volume spiked sharply during key selloff periods.

The 24-hour candle for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.283 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $7.157 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05, with a high of $7.507 and a low of $6.831. Total volume across 24 hours was 9,082,452.93, and notional turnover reached $63.3 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action on TRUMPUSDT showed a volatile bearish shift during the overnight hours in North America, particularly after the symbol broke below key support around $7.00. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the close of the 23:45 candle, which opened at $7.063 and closed at $6.983. This was followed by a bullish harami at 00:00 as price bounced briefly. The formation of a bearish 'falling three methods' pattern near $7.00–$7.10 confirmed weakening bullish momentum. The 24-hour candle closed near the low of the session, signaling exhaustion in the bulls.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both above the current close, with the 20 SMA recently crossing below the 50 SMA in a potential bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $7.30 and the 200-period SMA is at $7.20, suggesting further bearish pressure could follow if price continues below these levels.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative by the end of the day with a bearish crossover, and the RSI was hovering near 40, indicating mild oversold conditions. However, the RSI had dropped sharply earlier in the session to below 30 during the selloff, suggesting a temporary overbought correction after a brief rally. The divergence between price and RSI during the overnight hours implies a potential reversal in momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better assess the reliability of the bearish patterns observed in the 15-minute chart, a backtest could be designed using historical pattern-detection data for TRUMPUSDT. If such data were available, we would evaluate the performance of trades taken on pattern occurrences, particularly after the bearish engulfing and falling three methods patterns. The aim would be to determine whether these formations have historically led to continued bearish moves, and to what extent. This would help validate the current bearish bias and refine entry/exit strategies.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening past 1.5% during the early morning selloff. Price spent most of the session in the lower half of the bands, especially between 00:30 and 02:00, suggesting bearish pressure. The bands have since contracted slightly, indicating a potential pause in volatility. Price remains below the 20-period moving average and sits near the lower band, a classic bearish signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 23:45 and 00:45, with the largest turnover occurring at 23:45 when price dropped from $7.063 to $6.983 on 390,115.3 units traded. This was followed by another large volume spike at 00:30 during a $6.831 low. Notional turnover during this period reached $2.7 million in 15 minutes. Price and volume aligned during these moves, supporting the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 15-minute move from $6.831 to $7.507, the $7.20 level (61.8%) acted as a key resistance point before price turned lower. The 38.2% level at $7.28 was briefly tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels suggest potential support at $7.00–$7.10 and resistance at $7.20–$7.30. A break below $7.00 could lead to a retest of the $6.85–$6.90 range.

Looking ahead, the bearish bias remains intact with a potential test of $7.00–$7.10 in the next 24 hours. Investors should monitor the 50-period SMA for further bearish confirmation and watch for volume spikes that may signal renewed selling pressure or a potential short-covering rally. As with all volatile altcoins, caution is warranted, and stop-loss strategies should be in place to mitigate rapid price swings.