Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) – 2025-11-03 12:00 ET

• Price dropped from $7.82 to $7.45 as bearish momentum accelerated after 05:00 ET
• RSI hit 30, indicating oversold conditions, while volume surged to 1.11M at 05:15 ET
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction at 05:30 ET followed by a violent break lower
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 05:15 ET, confirming the breakdown below key support at $7.50
• Price closed at $7.45 with 14.2M volume and $103M turnover, suggesting a possible short-term bottom

The price of OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.55 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and dropped throughout the 24-hour window to close at $7.45 by 2025-11-03 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $8.00 and a low of $7.33. Total traded volume amounted to 14.2 million contracts, while notional turnover reached $103 million.

A strong bearish trend developed after 05:00 ET as price broke key support levels and accelerated downward. The 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and strong bearish divergences, especially around 05:15 ET when price broke below $7.50. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in volume to 1.11M contracts and a notable drop in price to $7.45.

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The RSI indicator dropped into the oversold territory (30) at 05:30 ET, signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. However, momentum remained bearish as the MACD crossed below the signal line and continued to trend lower. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, showed a sharp contraction at 05:30 ET followed by a rapid expansion as price fell through the lower band. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.

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Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $7.33 low to the $7.82 high identified key areas of potential support and resistance. The 61.8% level at $7.56 coincided with a previous price cluster and minor support. This level could serve as a potential short-term target for a bounce or a key area to watch for trend continuation. Price action around this level may determine the near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-selling strategy could target bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, with exits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the engulfing pattern's height. For example, a bearish engulfing pattern forming at $7.55–$7.50 could trigger a short at the next candle’s open, with a 61.8% target of $7.48 (based on the 5.5¢ drop). A stop-loss could be placed above the engulfing pattern’s high at $7.56. Testing this strategy would require scanning for all bearish engulfing patterns in the dataset and evaluating whether price reached the 61.8% level within a set holding period (e.g., 20 bars). This could help quantify the pattern’s predictive strength in the current volatile environment.

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