Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) as of 2025-10-06

• Price surged to $8.02 at 15:45 ET, up from $7.82 at 12:00 ET
• Volatility spiked with a 38% range, driven by late-day buying
• RSI reached overbought levels, suggesting potential pullback risk
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased market uncertainty
• Volume surged at $8.00–$8.02, confirming bullish sentiment

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) opened at $7.82, hit a high of $8.02, and closed at $7.99 after a 24-hour trading period. Total volume amounted to 1.05 million contracts, while turnover reached $8.17 million, reflecting strong interest. The session saw a late surge in bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish continuation pattern during the late ET hours, marked by a sharp breakout above the $8.00 level. A notable bullish engulfing candle emerged at 15:45 ET, confirming the breakout. The price then consolidated near $8.00–$8.01, with a key support area forming around $7.82–$7.84 and a strong resistance at $8.02. A doji near $8.00 at 16:00 ET signaled a potential pause in the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period line was crossed at around 15:45 ET, reinforcing the strength of the recent rally. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages remain bullish, while the 200-period line continues to act as a long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 15:00 ET and remained above the signal line, confirming momentum. RSI reached 78 near the close, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that a pullback to the $7.84–$7.86 range could be imminent, although a strong volume-based follow-through may allow for a continuation of the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from $7.75 to $8.02, highlighting increased volatility. The price closed near the upper band at $8.02, suggesting exhaustion of the short-term bullish move. A reversal to the lower band, around $7.75, would suggest renewed bearish pressure, though a bounce off the upper band could confirm further upside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 150,000 contracts at 15:45 ET and peaked at 151,346 contracts at 15:45 ET. Notional turnover followed suit, peaking at $8.02 with $1.2 million in turnover. The volume and price aligned during the breakout, confirming the validity of the move. However, a divergence between volume and price may emerge if the price fails to close above $8.02.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from $7.82 to $8.02, key retracement levels at $7.96 (23.6%), $7.92 (38.2%), and $7.88 (61.8%) will be watched closely. The price closed near $7.99, above the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting buyers remain in control. A retest of the 38.2% level could confirm the strength of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at the close of the bullish engulfing candle at $8.00, with a stop-loss at $7.95 and a take-profit at $8.15. Given the strong volume confirmation and the price closing near the upper Bollinger Band, this setup appears to capture a high-probability short-term move. The RSI reading near overbought levels suggests a trailing stop might be more effective than a fixed target in this case.