Market Overview for OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) as of 2025-10-03

• Price rose from $7.62 to $7.82 before retreating to close at $7.74
• Key resistance appeared at $7.80, with rejection observed
• Volume spiked above $180,000 at the peak, then declined sharply
• RSI peaked at overbought territory (~70), followed by divergence
• Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion with price near the upper band

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $7.62 on October 2, 2025, reached a high of $7.82, and closed at $7.74 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,365,767.54 TRUMP, and total turnover was approximately $10,477,873.

The price formed a bullish but indecisive pattern, with a strong push above $7.80 followed by a sharp pullback. A key resistance appears near $7.80, as evidenced by the rejection and subsequent bearish reversal. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart crossed below the 200-period MA, hinting at a potential bearish trend shift.

MACD lines crossed into negative territory after a brief bullish phase, while RSI confirmed overbought conditions at the peak and later moved into neutral to slightly oversold territory. Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion during the bullish thrust, with the price briefly touching the upper band before reversing direction.

Volume spiked dramatically during the bullish phase, surpassing $180,000 in turnover at the peak, but then declined as the price pulled back. This divergence between price and volume suggests weakening buying momentum. On the Fibonacci retracement levels, the price found support near the 61.8% level ($7.74) after the sell-off from the high.

The RSI's divergence with price action and the volume contraction during the pullback suggest caution ahead. While the 15-minute chart shows mixed signals, the daily MA crossover points to bearish potential. Price may test the 50-period MA again as support or resistance in the next 24 hours. Investors should be mindful of a potential breakdown below $7.70, which could trigger further short-term selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy could leverage the RSI overbought divergence and volume contraction to trigger a sell or short signal on the 15-minute chart. A potential entry could be placed on a close below the $7.80 resistance level, with a stop just above the last high. A Fibonacci 61.8% level at $7.74 could act as a short-term support target. The strategy would profit if the price breaks below this support and continues lower toward the 50-period MA or the 38.2% retracement level. A trailing stop could be used to protect gains if the price shows signs of stabilizing. This approach would be most effective during high-volatility hours and may be reinforced with a volume-based filter for confirmation.