Market Overview for Oasis/Tether USDt (ROSEUSDT): A 24-Hour Breakdown

• Price declined from 0.0241 to 0.0238 over 24 hours amid increased bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Volume surged during the final 6 hours, hinting at accumulation or distribution activity.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in the morning before expanding, signaling increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early afternoon, confirming downward pressure.

Oasis/Tether USDt (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.0241 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. It reached a high of 0.02425 and a low of 0.02374 before closing at 0.02388 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 17.6 million, while notional turnover was around 432,000 USD. The asset displayed a bearish bias with multiple reversal and continuation patterns emerging.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:00–19:15 ET candle, confirming the downward bias. A doji appeared at 0.02392 at 23:30 ET, signaling potential indecision. The key support levels emerged at 0.02392 and 0.02374, both showing buying interest. Resistance levels at 0.02405 and 0.02413 were tested multiple times without a strong break. The asset is currently trading in a descending channel, with bearish continuation likely unless 0.02413 is cleared decisively.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both been declining and crossed below key resistance levels, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price has remained below both averages, indicating ongoing pressure. The Bollinger Bands have experienced a contraction in the early morning hours before expanding widely. The price has stayed within the lower half of the bands, suggesting low volatility and a potential bounce from the lower band could be forthcoming.

MACD and RSI

The MACD has remained negative for most of the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a slight expansion in bearish momentum in the morning. The signal line crossed below the MACD line, confirming a bearish crossover. The RSI dropped to 31 by 08:00 ET, hinting at an oversold condition. A rebound could occur in the short term, but a sustained move back above 50 will require stronger volume and participation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the final 6 hours of the session, peaking at 1.7 million during the 10:30–10:45 ET candle. This suggests either accumulation by buyers or distribution by sellers near key support. Turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the price action. A divergence between volume and price in the morning indicated a potential weakening of the bearish trend. However, the bearish engulfing and continuation patterns suggest that volume is likely supporting a further decline unless a breakout occurs above 0.02413.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the recent swing from 0.02414 to 0.02374 indicate key levels at 38.2% (0.02393) and 61.8% (0.02387). Price has been consolidating near the 61.8% level, with some rejection seen at 0.02392. A move below 0.02387 would suggest a test of the next support at 0.02374. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing is at 0.02405, which has been a key resistance point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to capture short-term directional moves in ROSEUSDT using a combination of RSI and MACD crossovers, specifically targeting oversold conditions with a trailing stop loss. The 24-hour chart has shown an RSI dip into oversold territory, which could signal a potential bounce. However, the bearish engulfing pattern and the alignment of moving averages with bearish momentum suggest that the RSI rebound may be short-lived unless accompanied by strong volume and a break above 0.02413. The MACD crossover could confirm a resumption of the downtrend if it fails to flip positive despite the RSI recovery.