Market Overview for Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) - September 24, 2025

• ROSEUSDT declined 24 hours, ending at 0.02649, below the session’s high of 0.02755, amid uneven volume.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 40, suggesting a potential short-term pullback or consolidation.
• Volatility widened after a key breakdown below the 0.0267 support, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Volume spiked during the drop to 0.0263, but price failed to close below it, hinting at short-term support.
• Notional turnover reached $41.4 million, with divergence between price and volume observed in the afternoon hours.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.02714 on September 23, peaked at 0.02755, and closed at 0.02649 by 12:00 ET on September 24. The price action reflected a bearish bias, with total trading volume amounting to ~100.1 million ROSE and notional turnover reaching ~$41.4 million.

Structure & Formations
ROSEUSDT broke below key intraday support at 0.0267 and tested 0.0263, forming multiple bearish patterns including a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0267 and a hanging man pattern at 0.0265. A bearish divergence was visible on the 15-minute chart after a failed rally from 0.0263 to 0.0268. The 0.0265 level appears to be consolidating as a new short-term floor, with the 0.0267 level re-emerging as a potential resistance on any rebound.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, signaling bearish momentum. The 20 SMA has been declining and crossed below the 50 SMA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits above the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, indicating a medium-term bearish tilt, although no crossovers occurred in the 24-hour period.

MACD & RSI
The MACD histogram continued to shrink in the bearish territory, indicating weakening bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 38.2 on the daily chart and 31 on the 1-hour chart, suggesting oversold conditions could trigger a near-term bounce. However, the RSI failed to break above 40 on the 15-minute chart despite volume increasing, indicating potential bearish continuation unless a clear reversal is triggered.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded after the breakdown from 0.0267, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price closing near the lower band at 0.0263. This expansion suggests heightened uncertainty and potential for either a rebound or continuation lower.

Volume & Turnover
Volume increased sharply after 19:00 ET as price broke below 0.0267, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 19:00 ET (~17.1 million ROSE) as price moved to 0.02654. However, price failed to close below 0.0263, which could indicate short-term support. Turnover confirmed the bearish move with a 24-hour high at 19:00 ET, but diverged after 02:00 ET when volume declined despite a price decline to 0.0261.

Fibonacci Retracements
On the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0263 to 0.0268, the 0.0265 level aligned with the 50% retracement, where price found temporary support. On the broader daily chart, the 0.0263 level corresponds with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high of 0.02755 to the low of 0.02621, suggesting it could hold as a key psychological level.

Forward-Looking View
ROSEUSDT may test the 0.0263 support again in the next 24 hours, with a potential rebound toward 0.0267 if buyers emerge. However, a break below 0.0263 could signal a deeper bearish move toward 0.0260. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or strength.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting ROSEUSDT when price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) with increasing volume and RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period SMA, with a target at the next Fibonacci level. This approach leverages oversold conditions, bearish divergences, and key support levels for a medium-term bearish trade.