Market Overview for Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT): October 4, 2025

• ROSEUSDT traded lower after reaching a 24-hour high near 0.02788, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked during the initial hours, followed by a gradual contraction.
• Key support held at 0.02696 and 0.02641, while resistance failed at 0.02788.
• MACD divergence and RSI overbought conditions suggest a probable pullback.
• High turnover spikes during the 17:15–18:45 ET range indicate institutional activity.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.02726 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02646 as of 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair reached a high of $0.02788 and a low of $0.02611. Total traded volume was 57.68 million ROSE, and notional turnover stood at $1,564,738.78.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for ROSEUSDT reveals multiple key support and resistance levels. The most notable support is at $0.02696, which was tested twice and held, and a lower level at $0.02641, which held during a large bearish candle on October 4 at 02:30 ET. The high of $0.02788 served as a strong resistance that failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $0.02748 at 17:15 ET, followed by a doji at $0.02735 at 17:45 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal. A large bearish candle at 02:30 ET confirmed a breakdown in price.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum is bearish as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed downward, with the 50-period line now above the 20-period line. This suggests that the downward trend is gaining strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is below the 100 and 200-period lines, reinforcing a bearish bias and suggesting that the trend may continue for the next 24–48 hours unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 18:00 ET and has remained negative since, with a bearish divergence forming as the MACD histogram widened during the price drop. The RSI is now in oversold territory, having fallen below 30. This divergence suggests a potential short-term rebound, but the RSI remains weak, and further downward momentum is still possible.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early part of the session, with a band width peak at 17:15 ET, followed by a gradual contraction. Price has spent most of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish dominance and weak buying pressure. A breakout above the upper band is unlikely unless a strong reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 17:15 ET with a turnover of $182,560, indicating significant bearish participation. This was followed by a gradual decline in volume and turnover as the pair drifted lower. A divergence between price and volume was observed after 21:00 ET, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. However, the high turnover at 02:30 ET confirms a strong breakdown, with the candle reaching the session low.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.02611 to $0.02788, key levels at 61.8% ($0.02729) and 38.2% ($0.02760) appear to have acted as resistance. On the daily chart, retracements of the move from $0.02696 to $0.02762 highlight a 61.8% level at $0.02737 and a 38.2% level at $0.02749, both of which have been tested during the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and technical indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could be based on a bearish breakout from a key support level followed by a retest. The 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart and the bearish divergence in the MACD histogram could serve as entry signals, with the 38.2% Fibonacci level acting as a stop-loss. The target could be the next Fibonacci level or the lower Bollinger Band. This strategy would aim to capture continuation of the downtrend after a confirmed breakdown.