Market Overview for Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• ROSE/USDT declines sharply overnight from $0.01793 to $0.01596, hitting a 24-hour low of $0.01425.
• Volume surges to over 70M contracts in the early afternoon, indicating heightened bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought levels earlier, followed by bearish crossover and divergence.
• Price consolidates near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the latest downswing but fails to reclaim key support.
• Volatility expands as price drops into the lower Bollinger Band, signaling potential for further downside.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.01793 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.01425 on 2025-11-03 at 15:45 ET before closing at $0.01596. Total volume reached 230,323,163.49 contracts, with notional turnover reflecting the sharp selloff. The price action suggests bearish exhaustion but remains below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

ROSE/USDT formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early morning hours and was followed by a long bearish candle with a high volume of 715,1827.10, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend. A significant rejection at $0.0158–0.0159 occurred multiple times, indicating this range as a critical support area. A potential short-term base might be forming near $0.0151–0.0153, where price found a bottom briefly but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are bearishly aligned, with prices consistently trading below both. The 50-period SMA at ~$0.0164 and the 20-period at ~$0.0168 reinforce the bearish bias. Daily data suggests a broader bear phase, with the 50/100/200-day SMAs forming a descending triangle, pointing to sustained downward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after a brief bullish crossover in the morning, confirming the shift in momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory at ~25 during the selloff, suggesting the market could stabilize temporarily. However, the divergence between the price lows and RSI lows indicates bearish exhaustion may be limited.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply as price fell into the lower Bollinger Band by midday, with the width reaching ~$0.012 at its peak. The price has since traded within the bands but remains near the lower boundary. This suggests elevated uncertainty and potential for further downside or a rebound off the $0.0151–0.0153 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 70M contracts at 15:45 ET during the selloff, aligning with the drop to $0.01425. Notional turnover mirrored the volume surge, indicating genuine selling pressure. Divergence between price and volume at $0.0151–0.0153 suggests a potential bottoming process but lacks confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price is currently trading near the 23.6% retracement level of the latest downtrend (~$0.0152–0.0153), which could offer short-term support. The 61.8% level (~$0.0165) remains a critical resistance for any near-term bounce. The daily chart shows price near the 38.2% retracement of the broader decline from $0.0179–0.01425, which may delay further bearish momentum if the price holds here.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further assess the potential profitability of a bearish signal, a backtest strategy can be implemented using the Bearish-Engulfing pattern. This pattern, observed on multiple occasions in the provided 15-minute OHLC data, could serve as a trigger for a short trade. By sourcing historical ROSE/USDT OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 and identifying all instances of this pattern, a robust event-based backtest can be run. The test would involve entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle and exiting 24 hours later. This approach aligns with the bearish divergence and volume patterns seen in recent price action, offering an empirical validation to the current technical outlook.