Market Overview for Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) – 2025-09-27

• ROSEUSDT surged 1.4% in 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above 0.02560.
• Momentum accelerated in early ET hours, peaking at 0.02610 before consolidating.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with volume spiking 3x above average during the 18:45–19:00 ET range.
• RSI entered overbought territory, while MACD crossed into positive territory, confirming bullish momentum.
• A bearish divergence emerged in the last 3 hours, hinting at potential pullback risk ahead.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.02515 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.02610, and closed at 0.02582 by 2025-09-27 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 126,431,665.9 units, while notional turnover (volume × average price) reached $3,207,220. The pair exhibited a strong bullish bias driven by a late-night volume spike and early morning consolidation above key resistance.

Structure & Formations

ROSEUSDT broke out of a bullish flag pattern on the 15-minute chart, validating a key breakout above the 0.02560 resistance. A strong green candle at 0.02601–0.02587 marked the peak of the rally, followed by a consolidation phase that formed a small bearish doji near 0.02558. This doji signals potential indecision among buyers, with 0.02555–0.02560 likely to become a short-term support zone. Deeper support appears at 0.02545–0.02550, where price tested multiple times during the afternoon and evening ET hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bullish crossover, with price closing above both at the 10:45 and 11:00 ET candles. The daily 50/100/200 EMA structure shows ROSEUSDT above the 50 and 100, but still below the 200, indicating medium-term bullish momentum but a longer-term base of caution. The 50-period EMA is at ~0.02570, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of a recent swing, suggesting confluence of trend and retracement support.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive and crossed above the signal line after 18:30 ET, confirming a bullish momentum shift. The RSI, which had been in overbought territory (above 60) in the early hours, dipped to ~55 by the close, indicating some exhaustion in the rally but not a reversal. A bearish divergence began forming in the final three 15-minute candles of the 24-hour period, where RSI failed to make a new high despite the price pushing to a recent high.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly from 18:45 to 19:30 ET, as seen in the widening of the Bollinger Bands. The price traded near the upper band for a sustained period, confirming bullish strength. However, the most recent candles have pulled back toward the midline of the bands, signaling a potential short-term pullback. Traders should monitor if price holds above the lower band (~0.02548) to maintain the bullish outlook.

Volume & Turnover

The most intense volume spike occurred around 18:45–19:00 ET, with over 2.79 million units traded and a notional turnover of ~$70,000. This volume was accompanied by a breakout to the high of 0.02610, confirming a strong conviction in buyers. In contrast, the last few hours of the session saw declining volume despite sideways price action, suggesting decreasing conviction in the continuation of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent bullish leg from 0.02550 to 0.02610 aligns with Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% retracement level (~0.02572) coincides with the 50-period EMA and appears to be a key area for consolidation. The 38.2% retracement (~0.02587) was briefly tested before price pulled back, indicating a possible retracement to 0.02570–0.02575 in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~0.02572), with a stop-loss placed just below 0.02555, the recent support zone. A target could be set at the 0.02610 high, with a trailing stop placed at the 0.02585–0.02587 zone to capture possible volatility expansion. The MACD crossover and bullish divergence in the 18:45–19:00 ET period suggest that this approach could have been profitable with appropriate risk management.