Market Overview: Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – September 13, 2025

• NMRBTC broke above key resistance on strong volume, forming bullish continuation patterns.
• Momentum accelerated in early hours, with RSI approaching overbought levels and positive divergence.
• Volatility expanded mid-cycle, with price hovering above the upper Bollinger Band.
• Turnover spiked during the 04:30–06:00 ET rally, confirming the breakout.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retrace appears to hold as dynamic support, signaling potential for a 1.5% target.

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at 0.000153 on September 12 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.0001661, and closed at 0.0001561 by 12:00 ET on September 13. Total volume reached 4,055.15, with a notional turnover of ~6.38 BTC.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a strong breakout above the 0.0001593–0.0001606 range, driven by a bullish engulfing pattern at 04:45 ET. A sharp reversal followed at 05:00 ET, but key support at the 0.0001572–0.0001543 range held, confirming a higher-probability bullish structure. A doji formed at 07:45 ET, signaling exhaustion, but the trend remained intact through the closing hours.

Key levels

Support levels include 0.000156–0.000157 (61.8% Fib), 0.0001555 (38.2% Fib), and 0.0001543 (prior consolidation). Resistance is at 0.0001593–0.0001606 and the upper Bollinger Band at ~0.0001614.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the rally, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support line during retracements. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:30–06:00 ET surge, with price hovering near the upper band before retracing.

Volatility and momentum

Volatility spiked from 04:45 ET as large-volume candlesticks emerged, pushing price above the upper Bollinger Band. This expansion was followed by a contraction during the doji at 07:45 ET, suggesting a potential pullback before a continuation.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

RSI surged to ~78 near 05:30 ET and showed a positive divergence with price from 07:45–09:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish case. MACD crossed above the zero line at 04:45 ET and remained in positive territory, indicating sustained momentum. While RSI is approaching overbought, the divergence suggests the trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels applied to the 0.0001525–0.0001606 swing showed the 61.8% (0.000156) level as a strong support, which held during the 07:45–08:00 ET pullback. The 78.6% retrace (~0.000158) may act as a near-term resistance.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged between 04:45–06:00 ET, with a large 581.73 volume candle pushing the pair above 0.0001606. Turnover spiked during this period and again from 09:15–11:45 ET, aligning with new highs. Divergence between volume and price did not appear, confirming the bullish signal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at a breakout above the 0.0001593–0.0001606 consolidation range, with a stop loss below 0.0001572 and a target near the 78.6% Fib at ~0.000158. The 61.8% Fib at 0.000156 acts as a secondary entry confirmation level. Given the positive RSI divergence and strong volume, a 1–2% target within the next 24 hours appears attainable, though a pullback to test 0.0001554–0.0001546 could provide a more favorable risk-reward setup.