Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – October 3, 2025

• NMRBTC opened at $0.0001409, traded between $0.0001375 and $0.0001484, and closed at $0.0001433.
• A bullish breakout above prior highs was followed by consolidation and profit-taking.
• High-volume surges occurred near key levels, with a 24-hour turnover of $2,657.53.
• RSI showed overbought conditions late, while MACD flattened, suggesting fading momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating rising volatility and mixed signals near $0.0001433.

Market Context

The Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) pair opened at $0.0001409 on October 2, 2025, and over the 24-hour period traded as high as $0.0001484 and as low as $0.0001375 before closing at $0.0001433 on October 3. Total trading volume amounted to 2,292.46 units, with a notional turnover of $2,657.53. The 24-hour candle shows a bearish consolidation following a short-lived bullish impulse.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish breakout above the $0.0001435 level early in the session, followed by a bearish reversal as the pair closed below that level by the 00:15 candle. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing candle at $0.0001435 and a bearish inside bar at $0.0001433–$0.0001436, which may signal indecision. A key support level appears to be forming at $0.0001422, with a potential resistance just above at $0.0001452.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA 20) has shifted above the 50-period (SMA 50), forming a golden cross during the bullish breakout. However, the 50 SMA has since begun to cross below the 20 SMA, indicating a possible bearish reversal. The 50-period daily SMA sits at approximately $0.0001426, suggesting that the pair closed above short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line peaked at +0.00000082 during the early breakout before crossing into negative territory and remaining below the signal line, indicating a bearish momentum shift. RSI reached overbought levels (above 60) late in the session but dropped to around 54 by the close, supporting the idea of profit-taking. The divergence between RSI and price during the bearish reversal suggests a potential short-term bottom could be near.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early bullish phase, indicating rising volatility. Price tested the upper band at $0.0001484 and the lower band at $0.0001375. The most recent candle closed near the middle band, which sits at $0.0001415, suggesting a neutral balance between bullish and bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands is not observed, indicating ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price levels, particularly near $0.0001435 and $0.0001422, with several high-volume candles confirming price pivots. The largest single 15-minute volume spike was at 00:45 ET, where 123.19 units traded. Notional turnover was particularly strong during this period as well, reaching $17.66. Divergences are not evident between volume and price during the consolidation phase, suggesting balanced market participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0001375 to $0.0001484, the 50% retracement level is at $0.0001429 and the 61.8% level is at $0.0001436, both of which correspond closely with observed price action. The pair closed near the 50% level, which may serve as a short-term pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern that forms above a key resistance level, confirmed by a breakout in volume and RSI above 55. A stop-loss could be placed below the previous support, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This would align with observed behavior in the 00:30 ET–01:00 ET window, where a bullish engulfing pattern preceded a significant move up. Using a trailing stop based on Bollinger Band width could help lock in profits as volatility increases.