Market Overview: Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – November 7, 2025

Summary
• NMRBTC saw a 15-minute candle-driven rebound after a mid-day consolidation.
• Momentum remains cautious with RSI hovering near neutral.
• Volume and turnover surged on the afternoon’s breakout attempt.

NMRBTC opened at 0.0001056 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 0.0001162 by the end of the 24-hour window, while the low fell to 0.0001056. The pair closed at 0.0001145 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the period was 1,823.92 units, and notional turnover amounted to 0.2085 BTC (or $208.50 at $1,000/BTC). The pair displayed a volatile but directionally uncertain pattern, with several breakout attempts and pullbacks.

Structurally, the 15-minute chart showed a clear consolidation between 0.0001075 and 0.0001095 before a strong breakout attempt began in the afternoon. The breakout, which saw a rise to 0.0001162, was supported by increased volume and higher lows in the 16:00–17:00 ET timeframe. A Bullish Engulfing pattern was visible at 16:00 ET, indicating potential short-term buying pressure. However, the formation of a long upper shadow at the day’s high suggests sellers may re-enter the market at these levels. Key support levels appear to be at 0.0001075 and 0.0001061, with resistance forming near 0.0001095 and 0.000112.

Moving averages on the 15-minute timeframe showed a bullish crossover between the 20 and 50-period lines in the late afternoon, aligning with the breakout. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was slightly below the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a potential continuation of a longer-term sideways pattern. MACD showed a bullish crossover at 16:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish candlestick pattern, but the histogram remained compressed, indicating mixed momentum. RSI reached 62 by the close, avoiding overbought territory but suggesting momentum is still in favor of buyers.

Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly in the afternoon as the pair moved toward the upper band. The price closed at the upper edge of the bands, suggesting exhaustion or a potential reversal. Volume confirmed the move, with large spikes in the 15:15–17:00 ET period. Turnover was also concentrated in the breakout zone, supporting the idea that this was a genuine attempt at a new trend. Divergences were not significant, with both price and volume aligning during key moves.

The most recent swing from 0.0001061 to 0.0001162 provided retracement levels at 38.2% (~0.0001119) and 61.8% (~0.0001107). The close at 0.0001145 sits well above both, suggesting a strong short-term trend is in place. If the pair retraces to 0.0001107, it could test the 61.8% level as support. Further downward into the 0.0001075–0.0001061 range would likely trigger a retest of the breakout level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could capitalize on the Bullish Engulfing pattern observed during the 16:00–16:15 ET breakout, using a fixed 15-minute holding period to capture short-term momentum. Such a strategy would require precise entry and exit timing, aligning with the recent MACD crossover and RSI neutrality. While the current system uses daily bars, adapting the strategy to daily bars could approximate the 15-minute approach by entering at the open of the next day and closing at the close. This method would simplify execution while preserving the core logic of the pattern-based trade. If implemented, it would allow a more accessible form of testing within the current platform constraints.