Market Overview: Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• NMRBTC consolidates after a sharp 1.3% 24-hour decline, closing near session lows.
• Volume dries up during consolidation, with only 160.55 NMR turning over in the final 4.5 hours.
• A bearish hammer emerges mid-day, followed by a failed rebound and retest of support at 0.000114.
• RSI remains below 30 for most of the day, signaling oversold conditions but weak follow-through.
• Volatility remains compressed, with price hovering near lower Bollinger Band all session.

The Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) pair opened at 0.0001155 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0001135 the following day. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 0.0001171 to a low of 0.0001135. Total traded volume reached 633.45 NMR, with a notional turnover of 69.7 BTC. Price action shows a clear bearish drift, with a late afternoon hammer at 0.0001155 failing to generate a convincing reversal.

The 15-minute chart shows NMRBTC pressing down against a horizontal support zone near 0.000114 after a sharp selloff in the late morning. The price formed a key bearish hammer at 0.0001155, with the lower shadow nearly equaling the real body. While the candle did not meet the textbook 2:1 lower-to-body ratio, it remains a cautionary signal. A failed attempt to rally above the 0.0001148–0.0001153 range in the early afternoon suggests a lack of follow-through and growing bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands remain tightly compressed, indicating low volatility with price clinging to the lower boundary for most of the session. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI spent much of the day below 30, signaling oversold conditions, yet price failed to generate a convincing bullish bounce, hinting at exhausted buyers.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.0001171 high to the 0.0001143 low indicate 38.2% at 0.0001156 and 61.8% at 0.0001149, both of which failed to hold as resistance. A retest of the 0.000114 level is likely, with a breakdown below it suggesting a continuation toward the next Fibonacci level or lower. For now, the pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, with limited volume supporting a continuation rather than reversal.

Looking ahead, traders should watch for a decisive break below 0.000114, which could trigger a test of the 0.0001135–0.0001136 level. A bearish breakout would strengthen the case for a continuation, but limited volume may delay a meaningful move. Conversely, a sustained close above 0.0001153 could signal a reversal attempt, though current momentum suggests this is unlikely within the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the hammer pattern’s predictive power on NMRBTC, we propose the following backtesting framework. First, we will source 15-minute candlestick data from Binance for the Numeraire/Bitcoin pair from 1 January 2022 to 2025-10-25. The hammer pattern will be identified using the textbook criteria: a lower shadow at least twice the length of the real body and an upper shadow not exceeding 20% of the real body. Each signal will be timestamped with its formation (open) and the next candle’s close (exit point) for a 15-minute holding period. This will allow us to assess the frequency and profitability of the pattern across the pair’s volatility cycles. Given the recent failure of a key hammer pattern, this backtest could provide valuable insight into the pair’s near-term behavior under bearish pressure.