Market Overview: Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) – 24-Hour Price Action Summary

• Price opened at $0.0001329 and closed at $0.0001279, with a 24-hour low of $0.0001271 and high of $0.0001333.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged in the late evening session with a rejection at $0.0001333 and a sharp decline into the night.
• Volatility increased during the 18:45–19:00 ET period before stabilizing into a narrow trading range.
• Volume spiked to $5040.38 at $0.0001333, followed by a decline toward $0.0001271.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the late afternoon before entering oversold territory by the early morning.

NMRBTC opened at $0.0001329 on 2025-10-09 and closed at $0.0001279, with a 24-hour high of $0.0001333 and low of $0.0001271. The total volume traded was 6,899.45 and the notional turnover was approximately $0.921 (based on weighted average prices). The pair displayed a bearish bias after testing resistance at $0.0001333 and breaking below key support levels during the night session.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart suggest the 0.0001323–0.0001333 range is a critical psychological zone. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 17:30 ET as the pair moved up to $0.0001333, but this was rejected with a bearish reversal in the following sessions. A long-bodied bearish candle at 18:45 ET marked a strong rejection, indicating possible short-term exhaustion in the buying pressure. A doji formed at 21:15 ET as the price dipped toward $0.0001319, highlighting indecision at the lower end of the range. Key support levels currently lie at $0.0001281 and $0.0001271, while the immediate resistance is at $0.0001294 and $0.0001303.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, indicating a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.0001304 and the 20-period MA at $0.0001309. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral to bearish trend. The pair is currently below both, reinforcing the bearish momentum. MACD turned negative in the evening, and the histogram showed a widening bearish divergence, particularly from 18:45–20:15 ET. RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory by 01:30 ET, hinting at potential support holding around $0.0001271–$0.0001281.

Bollinger Bands showed a tight contraction during the overnight session, followed by a sharp expansion as the pair broke down from the upper band to the lower band, indicating heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band at $0.0001279, suggesting that the market could consolidate or test support further. A retest of the $0.0001281–$0.0001286 range is expected, with a possible bounce back toward $0.0001294–$0.0001303 if that support holds. A break below $0.0001271 could accelerate the bearish momentum.

The 24-hour notional turnover of $0.921 was concentrated in two major spikes: one at $5040.38 at $0.0001333 and another at $322.62 at $0.0001286. These volume clusters correspond to key turning points in the trend, confirming the rejection at $0.0001333 and the breakdown at $0.0001286. The price / turnover divergence appears bearish, as the volume decreased after the breakdown but picked up again during the retest of support, suggesting increased selling pressure at key levels. This reinforces the idea that the current bearish move is supported by active participation in the market.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when the price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a rejection at key resistance levels such as $0.0001323–$0.0001333 and a subsequent bearish divergence in the RSI. A stop-loss could be placed just above the upper Bollinger Band, while a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing from $0.0001333 to $0.0001271 (~$0.0001286–$0.0001294). This setup would require confirmation of volume expansion at key levels to avoid false breakouts and ensure that the bearish momentum is genuine. If the price holds above $0.0001281, this strategy may be reevaluated.