Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) on 2025-11-10

Summary
• NMRBTC opened at 0.0001088 and closed at 0.0001056, forming a bearish consolidation pattern.
• Price retreated below key support levels, with RSI signaling oversold conditions.
• Volume was subdued, and turnover remained low, suggesting minimal conviction in the move.

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at 0.0001088 on the 15-minute chart at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.0001056 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair reached a high of 0.0001098 and a low of 0.0001049 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 1,333.52 NMR, and notional turnover (based on closing prices) amounted to approximately 0.14 BTC.

The structure of the candlestick pattern suggests bearish exhaustion after a failed attempt to rebound above the 0.0001095 resistance level. The formation of a bearish inside bar and a lower shadow at 0.0001056 indicate a potential short-term support zone. A doji near the close signals indecision and could foreshadow a reversal or consolidation before a new directional move.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish bias, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA in a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MAs are broadly aligned in a downtrend, supporting the idea of a continuation in the near term. The 20-day MA currently acts as a dynamic resistance around 0.000107.

The MACD histogram remained negative for much of the period, with the line crossing below the signal line at the start of the session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 in the final hours, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, Bollinger Bands show a narrow range at times, indicating low volatility, with the price closing near the lower band.

Volume was generally low, with a few spikes near the 0.0001078 and 0.000105 levels. These provided temporary support but failed to confirm a strong reversal. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with no signs of large institutional participation.

Fibonacci retracements of the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0001098 to 0.0001049 show 0.0001056 as the 61.8% retracement level, reinforcing its importance as a potential pivot point. The 38.2% retracement at 0.0001069 appears to have acted as a minor resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest of an RSI-based strategy using the NMRBTC pair from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 reveals the potential for a time-bound long strategy in oversold conditions. The approach enters long on the first close after RSI(14) drops below 30 and exits after exactly 3 calendar days. This method leverages the bearish exhaustion observed in recent RSI readings. Initial results suggest a mixed performance, with varying win ratios and a need for further optimization around entry timing and additional risk controls.