Market Overview for Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) on 2025-09-19

• Price declined from 0.0001548 to 0.0001514 over 24 hours with bearish momentum.
• RSI below 30 and negative MACD signal oversold conditions and weak bullish conviction.
• Volatility expanded as price traded 330 bps range with diverging volume and price movement.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by breakout in late ET hours suggests potential trend shift.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at 0.0001545 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0001514 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded a high of 0.000158 and a low of 0.0001488 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 2,649.58, and notional turnover stood at 0.4092 BTC.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish trend with multiple lower highs and lower lows, breaking through key support at 0.000153 and 0.000152. A notable engulfing candle occurred at 2025-09-19 000000 as price gapped down from 0.0001531 to close at 0.0001524, signaling a bearish continuation. A potential bullish reversal pattern emerged at 2025-09-19 074500, where the candle opened at 0.0001507 and closed at 0.0001510, hinting at short-term stabilizing behavior.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed below the price, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend, with price currently below both.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative, with the line below the signal line, reflecting bearish momentum. RSI has dipped to 28, indicating oversold conditions, though a bounce in the next 24 hours could signal short-term buying pressure. However, without a clear reversal on higher timeframes, this may only represent a temporary bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour period, with the upper band reaching 0.000158 and the lower band touching 0.000148. Price closed near the lower band at 0.0001514, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend unless a strong reversal is triggered.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly in two key sessions: at 2025-09-19 091500 with 151.32 volume and at 2025-09-19 093000 with 185.9 volume. These spikes coincided with sharp price increases to 0.000158. However, volume declined sharply in the early ET hours despite continued price declines, indicating potential divergence and weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing low (0.0001488) and high (0.000158), the 38.2% and 61.8% levels correspond to approximately 0.0001547 and 0.0001524. Price has found temporary resistance near 0.0001524, aligning with the 61.8% level and suggesting a potential area of consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI crossing below 30 and volume increasing by 50% above the 5-period average. A long entry would be initiated when RSI reclaims 40 with volume contraction. Given the current RSI at 28 and the recent volume spikes, this strategy would currently signal a long entry setup if RSI bounces. The strategy aligns with the observed Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly 0.0001524, where a potential reversal could be tested. This setup would need confirmation on the 1-hour chart to avoid false signals.