Market Overview: NOTUSDT – September 24, 2025

• NOTUSDT fluctuated between $0.001638 and $0.001684, ending near the upper half of the 24-hour range.
• Strong volume spikes coincided with price reversals, suggesting active short-term trading pressure.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed signals, with RSI in mid-range and MACD diverging in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 03:00 ET, indicating rising volatility in the early morning session.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 0.001665 and 0.001644 as potential support and resistance levels, respectively.

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.001659 on September 23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.001684, a low of $0.001638, and closed at $0.001677 as of 12:00 ET on September 24. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 420,965,435.9 with a notional turnover of approximately $698,851. The pair showed a volatile yet mixed narrative across 15-minute candles, with strong on-chain activity in the late-night to early-morning hours.

The structure of the candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period was highly variable. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 23:45 ET on September 23, which preceded a sharp pullback to 0.001644. A later bullish hammer emerged at 05:30 ET on September 24, which followed the lowest point of the day and hinted at a potential short-term reversal. Resistance levels appear to cluster around $0.001665 and $0.001670, while support is likely to be tested near $0.001655 and $0.001644.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into positive territory late in the session, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. However, the daily timeframe suggests a more neutral stance, as the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages remain relatively flat. MACD showed a bearish crossover at the end of the 24-hour period, while RSI hovered around 50–55, indicating moderate momentum without overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 03:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility in the overnight session. Price action often touched the upper band during this period, suggesting heightened buying interest amid uncertainty. Volume spiked during this expansion phase, particularly between 03:30 and 04:45 ET, with large volumes coinciding with key price reversals. This suggests strong short-term positioning and potential order-block levels forming near $0.001643 and $0.001668.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key swing highs and lows of the 24-hour period indicate that the 61.8% retracement at $0.001654 and the 38.2% at $0.001670 were frequently tested. These levels may serve as dynamic support and resistance in the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average remains well above the current price, suggesting long-term bearish bias, but the 50-period MA is slightly bullish.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves using a dual moving average crossover (20 and 50 periods on the 15-minute chart) in conjunction with Fibonacci retracement levels. A long entry could be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA near a key Fibonacci level like 0.001654, with a stop-loss set just below the next major support. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior during the overnight session and would aim to capture short-term momentum during high-volume phases. Given the observed divergence in MACD during the final hours, this strategy may need a trailing stop to manage risk as momentum shifts.