Market Overview: NOTUSDT (Notcoin/Tether) – 24-Hour Analysis

• NOTUSDT declined 17.5% over 24 hours, closing at $0.001571 after forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below key support levels, with volume spiking during the breakdown.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but MACD remained bearish, suggesting further downside potential.
• Bollinger Bands widened as sell pressure increased, with price near the lower band.
• Turnover reached $252.4M, driven by large-volume sessions after 21:00 ET.

The Notcoin/Tether pair (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.001670 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at $0.001571 by 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, recording a 17.5% decline. The price hit a high of $0.001671 and a low of $0.001560 during the period, with total trading volume of 657,433,652.0 NOT and notional turnover of $1,032.9M.

Structure and price formations show a bearish bias, as the price has been in a steady descent since mid-evening ET, forming several bearish patterns. A long-legged doji appeared around $0.001630, indicating indecision before a sharp drop. A series of lower highs and lower lows since 19:30 ET formed a descending channel. Key support levels now lie at $0.001570 and $0.001560, with resistance at $0.001600.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirm the downward bias, with the 50SMA intersecting the 20SMA from above—a potential bearish signal. The 50-day SMA on the daily chart is at $0.001595, while the 100SMA and 200SMA are at $0.001615 and $0.001640, respectively, suggesting medium-term bearish pressure.

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The RSI is at 32, nearing oversold levels, but has not yet triggered a reversal signal, and the MACD remains bearish with a wide negative histogram, indicating sustained selling momentum. Bollinger Bands have widened, with price sitting near the lower band, signaling heightened volatility. Price appears to be consolidating within a 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend from $0.001671 to $0.001560, at $0.001600, suggesting potential for further downward movement toward $0.001560 and beyond.

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Looking ahead, investors should monitor the key support at $0.001570 and the 20SMA as short-term bearish targets. A close above $0.001600 could trigger a retest of the $0.001630 area, though bearish momentum appears stronger for now. The high volume and low RSI suggest potential for a short-term bounce, but caution is warranted as the broader trend remains bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy leverages a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band compression to identify potential reversal points. Given the current context, where RSI is near oversold levels but not yet rebounding, and Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, the strategy would likely flag a short-term entry point for a long position if RSI shows a bullish divergence and price bounces above the 20SMA. However, the ongoing bearish momentum from the 50SMA and MACD indicates that this may only be a temporary countertrend opportunity. The strategy would need to balance the medium-term bearish trend with short-term volatility and divergence to avoid premature entries.