Market Overview for NOTUSDT (Notcoin/Tether) – 2025-09-21 12:00 ET

• Price consolidated between 0.001843–0.001872, failing to break key resistance.
• Negative divergence in RSI suggests weakening bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning, with volume spiking above $12M.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price hit 2.5σ upper and retracted to mid-band.
• 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.001855 appears to contain retracement.

The price of Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.001859 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001876 and a low of 0.001831, and closed at 0.001837 as of 2025-09-21 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was approximately 344,693,000 NOT coins, with a notional turnover of $630,867 (based on NOTUSDT price).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish broadening pattern after reaching a morning high of 0.001876. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the 09:30–10:00 ET window, confirming a short-term reversal. A doji formed around 0.001846, indicating indecision, while key support levels were observed at 0.001845 and 0.001831. Resistance remains at 0.001862, a prior 15-minute high that failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.001854) and 50-period MA (0.001851) are both in a slight bearish crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral to mildly bearish bias. Price has stayed below both 50 and 200-day MAs, maintaining a downtrend structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the morning, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI has moved from overbought territory in the early hours (90s) to a current reading of 36, signaling oversold conditions. This divergence suggests a potential bounce may be due, though without a bullish crossover in MACD, a strong reversal is unlikely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 04:00 ET, with price reaching the upper band at 0.001876. A contraction occurred around 10:30 ET, followed by a sharp retest to the lower band at 0.001831. Price has since returned to the mid-band region, suggesting consolidation is likely ahead of a new breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 20M NOT coins during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, coinciding with the high of the session. Notional turnover reached its peak at $12.5M during this period, suggesting strong selling pressure. In the late morning, volume declined to below 7M NOT coins, though turnover remained consistent, indicating buyers may be stepping in selectively.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the 15-minute swing high (0.001876) and the low (0.001831), the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.001856 and the 61.8% at 0.001846. Price appears to have found support at the 61.8% level but is showing signs of pressure below it. On a daily basis, the 50% retracement of the longer-term bear trend aligns with the 0.001850–0.001855 cluster.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours could bring a test of the 0.001845 support level. A break below this could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.001830, but a rebound is likely if volume and RSI confirm buying interest. Traders should watch for candlestick confirmation and divergence in indicators to assess the strength of the reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using a 50-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence above 30. Long entries could be triggered when price breaks above the 20-period MA and RSI crosses above 35, while short entries would occur on a breakdown below the 50-period MA with RSI below 35. Stops could be placed below the most recent swing low or above the swing high, depending on direction. This approach aims to capture short-term mean reversion in a range-bound asset like NOTUSDT, which showed signs of consolidating around the 0.001845–0.001862 cluster today.