Market Overview: NOTUSDT – 24-Hour Technical Summary

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• Price dropped sharply after 19:30 ET, falling from ~$0.00148 to ~$0.000607 within 45 minutes due to a massive bearish candle.
• Volatility spiked following the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly during the selloff.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 15 by 21:00 ET, suggesting potential bounce but failed to confirm with bullish volume.
• Turnover surged to over 1.6B USDT during the selloff, indicating strong liquidation pressure.
• Price found short-term support near $0.000835–$0.000842 but failed to form a convincing bullish pattern.

The NOTUSDT pair opened at $0.001504 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at $0.000960 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The 24-hour high was $0.001516, while the low was a sharp $0.000213. Total volume reached 1607.64 million tokens, with a notional turnover of $1,607.64 million.

The price action revealed a major breakdown after 19:30 ET, where a massive bearish candle formed with a high of $0.001484 and low of $0.000607. This candlestick appears to be a deep bearish continuation pattern, especially given the high volume and lack of follow-through buying. Following this, the price tested the 0.000835–0.000842 level multiple times, forming small bullish hammers and dojis, but failed to break above 0.000975–0.000980.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have fallen significantly and are now below the current price. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA has become a key resistance level. RSI has remained in oversold territory since 21:00 ET, while the MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover.

Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the selloff, with prices bottoming near the 2σ lower band. Volatility has since contracted slightly, suggesting a potential pause in the move. However, price remains below the 20-period MA and is still in a bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy assumes a short bias upon confirmation of a bearish breakout from a 3-hour consolidation pattern, confirmed by a rejection at a key Fibonacci level and a bearish divergence in the RSI. The strategy would enter a short position after a break below the 0.000842 support level with a stop above the 0.000895–0.000900 cluster.

Given today’s price action, a similar strategy would have triggered a short signal at 21:30 ET upon breaking below 0.000842. A stop above 0.000898 would have limited exposure to a potential rebound. The target for this strategy would be 0.000735–0.000710, aligning with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high.

The RSI divergence during the 22:00–23:00 ET consolidation period supports this approach, though volume was lower than during the initial selloff, suggesting reduced conviction from sellers at that stage.