Market Overview for NOTUSDT on 2025-10-30

• NOTUSDT opened at $0.00079 and traded in a tight range before plunging to a low of $0.000723.
• A significant sell-off began around 18:45 ET, marked by a sharp decline and high volume.
• Momentum weakened throughout the session, with RSI and MACD signaling bearish exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded dramatically, as seen through wide Bollinger Bands, but price failed to rebound.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.618 and 0.786 may serve as key resistance if a near-term bounce forms.

The NOTUSDT pair opened at 12:00 ET−1 at $0.00079, reached an intraday high of $0.000816, and a low of $0.000721, closing the 24-hour window at $0.000717 by 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 15-minute OHLCV dataset was 2.35 billion USDT, with a notional turnover of ~$1,893,000. The session displayed a bearish bias, particularly after a large bearish candle at 18:45 ET that gapped down and consumed nearly 8% of the price, signaling strong selling pressure.

Structure and formations suggest that the $0.000723–$0.000727 range may act as a near-term floor, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around 18:45 ET. Key support levels appear at $0.000715–0.000718, and resistance at $0.000756–0.000761. A doji-like candle near $0.000769 indicates indecision but was quickly invalidated by further declines.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart turned downward after the 19:00 ET candle, while the 50-period line remained bearish. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD showed a negative crossover in the late hours of the session, with bearish divergence. RSI dropped below 20 in the final hour, entering oversold territory, though a bounce may be short-lived without strong volume.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $0.000717, suggesting possible consolidation or a test of the support zone. However, the absence of a strong rebound despite oversold conditions points to potential continuation of the bearish move. Volume surged during the selloff but failed to confirm a strong reversal, highlighting bearish exhaustion rather than strength.

Looking ahead, NOTUSDT may test the $0.000715–0.000718 level over the next 24 hours. A break below this range could signal a deeper correction toward $0.000700, but a rebound above $0.000750 could re-engage short-term buyers. Traders should remain cautious, as the bearish bias is reinforced by multiple indicators and a lack of convincing reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined uses RSI to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions. Given the sharp decline in NOTUSDT and the RSI hitting below 20, this would generate a long entry signal if volume and price action confirm strength. Conversely, the MACD crossover and bearish divergence suggest a short entry is more likely. For a similar strategy applied to a stock like SPY, RSI thresholds of <30 for entry and >70 for exit are standard, with a 14-day look-back period. Using the next day’s open for execution and incorporating a stop-loss at 3% would manage risk. If applied to NOTUSDT, a similar framework could offer insights into short-term mean reversion opportunities.