Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) – October 13, 2025

• NOTUSDT dipped below $0.000960 amid bearish pressure, with volume expanding near key support levels.
• Momentum cooled as RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound could be near.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-day before a late-range expansion, pointing to rising short-term volatility.
• Turnover spiked during the afternoon and evening hours, but price failed to confirm with strong follow-through.
• A bearish engulfing pattern was expected to be analyzed, though a technical issue delayed confirmation for now.

The NOTUSDT pair opened at $0.000957 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.000942 at 12:00 ET today, with a high of $0.000982 and a low of $0.000921 over the 24-hour window. Total volume reached 1,986,312,842.0, while turnover amounted to approximately $1,926,678. The pair experienced a volatile 24-hour session, with sharp intraday declines and uneven volume distribution.

Structure and key formations revealed a notable bearish breakout from the $0.000960 psychological level, with a short-term support zone developing near $0.000940–$0.000950. A bearish engulfing pattern may have appeared near the $0.000970–$0.000980 range during the early evening hours. While the pattern itself could not be confirmed due to a technical error, the context supports the possibility of a bearish reversal signal. A doji near the $0.000955 level also suggested indecision among buyers and sellers. The price may be consolidating around this support, with potential for a bounce if volume rises again.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA during the latter part of the session, indicating bearish bias. The daily chart, however, displayed the 50-period MA above the 200-period MA, offering some longer-term bullish context. The 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 100-period MA near the closing hours, potentially signaling a short-term bearish divergence. The 50-period and 100-period daily MAs remain in a bullish alignment, pointing to mixed signals across timeframes. Price may be setting up for a directional test in the next 24 hours.

MACD and RSI readings reflected a mixed short-term momentum. RSI approached oversold territory near 30, which may suggest a potential rebound is near. MACD lines remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover near the end of the day. However, the histogram showed contraction, hinting at decreasing bearish conviction. Bollinger Bands were narrow in the mid-session before expanding as volatility increased, suggesting a possible reversal or continuation. Price closed near the lower band, which could act as a near-term support zone.

Volume and turnover were highest between 4 PM and 6 PM ET, coinciding with the pair’s most significant drop. However, price failed to hold above key levels after the volume spike, suggesting bearish exhaustion or a lack of follow-through. Turnover spiked to $128,000 during the 4:30 PM to 5:00 PM window, but this was not accompanied by a significant move higher. A divergence between volume and price action may indicate a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The pair may need stronger volume to confirm any upward bounce in the coming hours.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the $0.000921 to $0.000982 swing indicated key levels at 38.2% ($0.000952), 50% ($0.000957), and 61.8% ($0.000962). Price hovered around 38.2% and 50% near the close, suggesting potential support for the immediate term. Daily Fibonacci levels from prior major swings may offer further context, but the 15-minute retracement levels appear more relevant for short-term traders. A bounce above 50% could retest 61.8% as a key resistance level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical context and potential bearish engulfing pattern observed in the 15-minute chart, a backtest could be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a bearish strategy based on this signal. The hypothesis would involve entering a short position on the confirmation of a bearish engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing pattern and a target based on the Fibonacci retracement levels or Bollinger Band expansions. Using the raw OHLC data, the pattern can be identified locally and tested for profitability, particularly in the 24-hour context. This strategy may be especially relevant given the divergence in volume and price, as well as the RSI’s proximity to oversold conditions, suggesting an increased likelihood of bearish continuation or consolidation.