Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT)

• NOTUSDT opened at $0.00078 and closed at $0.000776 after a 24-hour range of $0.000776–$0.000796.
• Price retreated after a morning rally, ending near the session low, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked early but faded, with turnover declining in the final 4 hours, signaling waning conviction.
• MACD and RSI show weakening bullish momentum, while price remains above 20- and 50-period MA.
• Volatility expanded in the morning before contracting, pointing to a possible consolidation phase.

The 24-hour NOTUSDT pair on Tether opened at $0.00078 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.000776 by 12:00 ET. The pair hit an intraday high of $0.000796 and a low of $0.000776. Total trading volume for the period was 443,872,155.6, with notional turnover at $345,438. The price appears to have struggled for momentum in the latter half of the session, closing below midday levels and near the session low.

Structurally, NOTUSDT formed a bearish divergence with volume during the morning rally. A key support area appears to be forming near $0.000776, while resistance is at $0.000796, where the price failed to maintain a bullish breakout. A Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged around 16:30 ET, with a strong bearish reversal candle that may signal the start of a correction phase. A Doji candle at 14:45 ET also indicated indecision, reinforcing the potential for a near-term pullback.

Moving averages show a positive short-term bias: the 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart remain above the current price, suggesting the pair remains in a bullish trend for now. However, the price is now within the lower band of the Bollinger Band, hinting at increased bearish pressure and a possible oversold condition. RSI has declined to around 28, reinforcing the notion of a potential rebound from these levels, while the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum.

The volume profile shows a strong early morning spike (notional turnover of $26,161 at 17:30 ET) that gradually waned. A divergence between price and volume emerged in the latter half of the session, with volume declining despite price attempts to recover. Fibonacci retracement levels on the morning swing suggest a 61.8% level at $0.000783, which appears to have held as a short-term resistance. Price is currently testing the 38.2% retracement level at $0.000776, which could act as a support or trigger a deeper pullback depending on follow-through volume.

The market may consolidate near $0.000776 in the next 24 hours if bears fail to break this level with conviction. A breakout above $0.000783 could reinvigorate the bullish trend, but risks remain if the price fails to hold above $0.000776.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the recent Bearish Engulfing and the weakening RSI, a potential backtest strategy could focus on short entries following confirmation of this pattern. Using NOTUSDT as the ticker, the Bearish Engulfing pattern is best confirmed on a close below the previous candle’s open. A possible entry rule would be to open a short position at the next day’s open after the pattern forms. For exit rules, a fixed holding period of 5 days or a trailing stop-loss of 2% could be tested. Using daily close prices for performance metrics, such a strategy could be backtested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02 to assess its viability.