Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT)

• Price action shows consolidation after an early sharp rise
• RSI remains neutral, suggesting balanced momentum
• Volatility expanded midday, followed by a contraction
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout before fading
• Fibonacci levels suggest support near 0.001550–0.001545

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.001521, reached a high of 0.001593, a low of 0.001479, and closed at 0.001499. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 937,196,729.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 1,408,968.15 USD. The price action reflects a volatile yet directionless session, with strong volume during the bullish breakout followed by a sharp reversal in the final hour.

Structure & Formations

Price broke above a key resistance of 0.001568 in the early hours but failed to hold, forming a bearish inverted hammer at the top. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.001573–0.001579, reinforcing a reversal theme. A doji at 0.001561 signaled indecision, followed by a sharp decline, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish momentum. The session ended with price consolidating near 0.001515, forming a potential bearish pennant.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed into a bearish configuration after the midday top, confirming the downward shift in trend. The 0.001543 level (a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.001479 low to the 0.001593 high) acted as a temporary support. The 0.001525 level (61.8% retracement) is now a key target for further bearish movement, with a possible stop above 0.001535.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line midday, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a sharp contraction in the final hour as selling pressure eased. RSI hovered around 50 for most of the session but dipped below 40 in the final 30 minutes, indicating oversold conditions. A rebound from this level could be possible, but the bearish divergence between price and momentum indicators remains a concern.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 12:00–15:00 ET window, reflecting heightened volatility. Price traded near the lower band for most of the session, indicating bearish bias. A contraction in the bands at the close could signal a potential reversal, but a break above the 0.001550 level would be needed to confirm this.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 57.16 million units during the 0.001593 high but dropped to 44.47 million units during the final hour’s selloff. Turnover mirrored volume closely, showing no divergence in price and volume. The large volume during the bearish breakout validates the move but also suggests a high probability of consolidation or a countertrend bounce in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could be to short the pair on a close below the 20SMA (currently around 0.001535) with a stop just above the 0.001545–0.001550 area. A target could be the 0.001525–0.001515 zone, aligning with Fibonacci and earlier support. A countertrend long position might consider a bullish breakout above 0.001545 with RSI above 50 as confirmation.

The next 24 hours could see NOTUSDT testing 0.001520–0.001515 for support, with a potential short-term bounce if RSI recovers above 50. However, a break below 0.001525 could accelerate the bearish bias, particularly if volume increases again. Investors should remain cautious, given the volatile nature of the pair and the risk of a rapid reversal.