Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT)

• Price consolidated between $0.001875–$0.001898 with late-night break above $0.001900.
• Volume spiked above $0.001900 but faded on pullback, signaling mixed conviction.
• RSI and MACD showed bullish momentum, but price failed to close above key resistance.
• Bollinger Bands widened overnight, indicating rising volatility.
• Turnover surged 3x in the last 6 hours, with no clear follow-through.

On 2025-09-17, Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.001875 at 12:00 ET - 1, surged to a high of $0.001911, and closed at $0.001875 by 12:00 ET after a pullback to $0.001875. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of 186,817,897.0 and a notional turnover of $345,444.37 (estimating at an average price of ~$0.001866).

Structure & Formations

Price found key resistance at $0.001900–$0.001907, where it stalled and reversed after multiple attempts to break out. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.001903 at 03:45 ET, followed by a shooting star near $0.001905 and a hanging man at $0.001886. These signals suggest potential exhaustion in the bullish bias. Support levels include $0.001885 and $0.001875, where price has found multiple bounces and a key pinbar at 04:30 ET.

Moving Averages & MACD

Short-term (20/50 EMA) indicators crossed into bullish territory during the late-night rally but diverged with price action as the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, signaling bearish pressure. MACD crossed into positive territory briefly but failed to maintain it, with a shrinking histogram indicating waning momentum.

RSI & Bollinger Bands

The RSI reached 67 at the top of the move, a marginal overbought level, and fell back to neutral territory during the pullback. Bollinger Bands showed a volatility expansion overnight with price staying near the upper band before rolling over. Price now hovers near the midline, suggesting consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply on the $0.001900 breakout with a 15-minute candle showing $0.001905 close and 21.79M volume, but faded sharply afterward. Turnover mirrored this pattern, rising by 300% over 6 hours, then trailing off without confirmation of a sustained move. This divergence raises questions about the quality of the bullish breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 03:00–03:30 swing, price retested the 61.8% level at $0.001903 and bounced lower. The 38.2% retracement level at $0.001894 acted as a key pivot point. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of $0.001881 may offer near-term support ahead of the $0.001873 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could use the bullish breakout of the 20 EMA, coupled with a RSI above 60 and MACD cross above zero, to trigger a long signal. Stops could be placed below key support at $0.001881, with a target near the $0.001910–$0.001920 zone. This strategy might have yielded positive returns in the past 72 hours, though would have been invalidated on the 04:30 reversal. Testing over a 200-candle period could reveal the strategy’s robustness in ranging vs. trending conditions.