Market Overview: Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) — 24-Hour Summary

• Price opened at $0.000825 and traded between $0.000778 and $0.000834, closing at $0.000801.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour period, with a significant pullback from overbought levels.
• Volume surged after 16:00 ET, with notional turnover peaking at ~$21.8 million in a single candle.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum exhaustion, with potential for a short-term rebound.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.000825 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.000834 before correcting sharply to a low of $0.000778. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29, it closed at $0.000801. The pair saw total trading volume of ~347,952,175 tokens, translating into a 24-hour notional turnover of ~$279,141,000.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a bearish reversal from a potential overbought zone, with a sharp breakdown from $0.000834 to $0.000778. Key support levels formed near $0.000785 and $0.000778, with the latter holding briefly before a partial rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident around 20:15 ET, signaling a shift in momentum, followed by a deep correction that may now offer a short-term bounce opportunity.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both dipped below price action as the selloff progressed, indicating bearish control. By the end of the 24-hour window, the 20SMA had crossed below the 50SMA, forming a potential death cross. On a daily timeframe, the 50DMA appears to be forming a shallow support near $0.000790, with the 200DMA slightly below that level, suggesting the market may consolidate before a longer-term directional decision.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish with a wide negative histogram, reflecting aggressive selling pressure. The RSI declined sharply from overbought territory, dipping into neutral to slightly oversold levels by the 24-hour close. While not in extreme oversold territory, the RSI suggests that the immediate bearish momentum may be running out of steam, opening the door for a countertrend bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price trading at the lower band for much of the late evening and early morning hours. The expansion indicates heightened volatility and emotional trading. As the price moved back toward the middle band by the 24-hour close, this suggests volatility may be subsiding, but a retest of the lower band could reignite short-term volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly between 16:00 and 20:30 ET, with the largest single candle registering ~$21.8 million in turnover. This suggests strong bearish participation. However, volume during the rebound has been lighter, indicating that buying interest may not yet be strong enough to reverse the trend. Divergence between price and volume at the lower end of the move suggests the selloff could be near exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key move from $0.000778 to $0.000834, the 61.8% level sits at $0.000803, which aligns closely with the 24-hour close of $0.000801. This suggests the pair may test this level again in the near term. The 50% and 38.2% levels are at $0.000806 and $0.000811, respectively, which could serve as key resistance targets if the bounce continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish exhaustion and the current positioning near key Fibonacci and RSI levels, a backtesting strategy could be evaluated using a momentum-based approach. The proposed strategy would involve staying long the ETF at all times except when RSI crosses above 70, indicating overbought conditions. A sell signal would trigger on the first close after RSI exceeds 70, and re-entry would happen when RSI falls back below 60. This method aims to filter out overextended bullish moves and capture corrections, leveraging the recent pullback as a potential entry opportunity. The 24-hour chart for NOTUSDT suggests that this strategy could have captured the recent selloff and is now positioned for a potential rebound.