Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price drifted lower after a midday rebound, with key support forming near 0.000707.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but failed to confirm a bullish reversal.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential for near-term bounce.
• Volatility remained low for most of the session, with a late expansion observed.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:15 ET, signaling further downside risk.

Market Overview

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.000736 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.00075 before closing at 0.000732 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The pair traded between 0.000693 and 0.00075 during the session, with total volume of 583.17 million and notional turnover of $412.46 thousand.

Price action revealed a bearish bias, with sellers dominating after 19:00 ET. The formation of a bearish engulfing candle at 19:15 ET confirmed bearish momentum. A notable bounce emerged during the overnight session as buyers re-entered around 02:15 ET, pushing price toward 0.000722. However, this failed to spark a broader reversal as bearish pressure reasserted itself in the late afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 0.000707 and 0.000715, both of which were tested multiple times during the session. Resistance levels held at 0.000727, 0.000735, and 0.000743, with mixed results. A bearish engulfing pattern at 19:15 ET was a strong bearish signal, suggesting continuation of the downward move. A doji candle at 02:15 ET suggested indecision and possible reversal but was quickly negated by bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sat below the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, price traded below all three major MAs (50, 100, 200), reinforcing the bearish setup. The bearish crossover of the 20/50 MA on the 15-minute timeframe indicates a high probability of continued selling pressure if the current trend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line throughout the session, with a bearish crossover observed at 19:00 ET. Histogram contraction occurred during the overnight recovery but failed to sustain bullish momentum. RSI entered oversold territory around 0.000707 and hovered near it for much of the session, suggesting a potential bounce could be on the cards if buyers return.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively low during the early hours of the session, with price hovering near the middle band. However, a significant expansion occurred during the bearish push after 19:00 ET, as price moved toward the lower band. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting potential for a rebound if volatility stabilizes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late afternoon selloff, with the 19:15 ET candle showing the highest volume of the session at 25.4 million. Turnover also increased during the same period, confirming the bearish move. A divergence emerged between volume and price during the overnight bounce, with price rising despite lower-than-average volume, suggesting the rally may lack conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.000722 to 0.00075, price retested the 61.8% retracement at 0.000738 before resuming its decline. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent bearish move stands at 0.000727, a level that has been tested multiple times but not held.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential trading opportunities in NOTUSDT and similar pairs, a backtest strategy based on RSI-oversold conditions could offer valuable insights. This strategy involves entering a long position when RSI dips below 30 and holding it for five trading days. Given that NOTUSDT spent a significant portion of the session in oversold territory, this approach may be applicable here. A successful backtest would require pulling historical RSI data, identifying signal points, and assessing performance over a defined period (e.g., 2022–2025). This strategy could be refined by considering additional filters such as price-volume confirmation or Bollinger Band positioning, but it provides a solid starting point for quantifying potential opportunities in volatile crypto markets.