Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price action showed a bearish consolidation with key support at $0.000746 and resistance at $0.000774.
• Volatility expanded in the early part of the day, followed by a sharp contraction during the overnight session.
• RSI and MACD indicated weakening momentum with potential for oversold conditions toward the close.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The 24-hour period for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) began at $0.000754 and closed at $0.000735, reaching a high of $0.000782 and a low of $0.000734. The total traded volume was 882,882,406.0 NOTUSDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $663,163. Price action reflected a bearish bias, particularly after 04:00 ET, as the pair tested and failed at several intraday resistance levels.

The candlestick pattern during the morning showed a Bearish Engulfing formation, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. This was followed by a series of smaller bearish candles, with notable support levels forming around $0.000746 and $0.000738. Resistance levels emerged at $0.000766 and $0.000774. The overall structure suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum, though buyers may look to re-enter near key support.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, with price staying below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a mixed longer-term bias.

The MACD showed bearish momentum, with the line dipping below the signal line and negative divergence. The RSI approached oversold territory by the close, reaching around 30, indicating potential near-term buying interest. Traders may watch for a bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.000747 as a short-term barometer.

Bollinger Bands reflected a recent contraction, particularly in the overnight hours, suggesting a period of consolidation before the morning breakout. Price remained below the lower band during the late-night hours, indicating low volatility and a lack of conviction in buyers.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume was elevated in the morning session, especially between 17:00 ET and 20:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp sell-off. The highest volume occurred at $0.000782, where a candle closed with a bearish engulfing pattern. This suggests aggressive profit-taking or shorting activity.

Turnover showed a divergence in the late night, as volume declined but price continued to fall, which could signal weakening bearish sentiment or a lack of follow-through. The pattern suggests caution ahead of potential reversal setups, with the next 24 hours likely to test key support and resistance levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing strategy tested on NOTUSDT over a 3.5-year backtest returned a negative total of -11.22%, with an annualized return of -1.53% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05. The average 1-day trade was nearly neutral at -0.06%, with no clear edge for short-term selling. The results highlight the importance of filtering out low-probability signals and the potential benefit of tighter risk controls, such as stop-losses or volatility filters. Given the current setup and historical performance, traders may want to approach this pattern with caution and consider additional indicators for confirmation.