Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) - 2025-11-01

• Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.000740–$0.000791, closing near the upper end at $0.000783.
• Price action showed a bullish bias after 17:00 ET, with a key breakout above $0.000775 and consolidation near $0.000783–$0.000785.
• Volatility and volume surged during the late New York session, with turnover peaking around $100 million equivalent.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near the close, signaling a potential short-term pullback or consolidation ahead.
• Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate expansion, with price hovering above the 20-period moving average.

Market Summary and Key Levels

The NOTUSDT pair opened at $0.000753 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.000783 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.000791 and a low of $0.000740. Total trading volume over 24 hours was 683,567,630 units, with a notional turnover equivalent to $534.7 million (calculated by multiplying average price and volume). Price action showed a clear bias toward the upside in the latter half of the session, with key support near $0.000765 and resistance consolidating at $0.000785–$0.000787.

Structure & Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NOTUSDT traded above the 20 and 50-period moving averages throughout the day, forming a bullish bias. A breakout above the 19:45 ET candlestick at $0.000761 signaled a shift in momentum. Daily averages (50/100/200) would show a more neutral stance but are not available for this timeframe. The price action suggests a potential for continuation if the $0.000785–$0.000787 level is tested.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD and RSI

MACD remained in positive territory for much of the session, with a clear bullish crossover and increasing histogram bars, suggesting strong upward momentum. RSI climbed into overbought territory (>70) in the final hours, indicating a potential near-term pullback. However, the sharp move up from $0.000763 to $0.000791 suggests that buyers may still be in control in the near term.

Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility expansion, with the price hovering near the upper band in the last few hours, reinforcing the bullish bias. A pullback to the middle band could serve as a test of short-term demand.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly between 20:00 ET and 04:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute candle (20:15 ET) showing 322.4 million units traded. This volume was accompanied by a high of $0.000782, suggesting strong buying pressure. Turnover confirmed this volume surge, with the 20:15 candle being the most liquid event of the session. Divergences were not observed between price and volume, reinforcing the strength of the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci to the last 15-minute swing (from $0.000740 to $0.000791), the 38.2% retracement level lies around $0.000769 and the 61.8% level near $0.000785, which is in close alignment with recent resistance levels. This suggests that $0.000785 is a critical level to watch for potential continuation or rejection.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price behavior of NOTUSDT aligns with several aspects of the backtest hypothesis that explores the impact of avoiding USDT as a collateral asset in the context of RSI overbought conditions. By refraining from using USDT as a stablecoin or collateral, the strategy appears to have helped avoid overbought scenarios, where prices could have been vulnerable to retracement. The RSI reaching overbought territory in the final hours suggests that a portfolio using such a strategy might have exited earlier, preserving capital and avoiding a potential short-term correction. The sharp volume-driven move up, followed by a consolidation phase, also suggests that leverage was used cautiously, aligning with the risk mitigation benefits mentioned in the strategy description. This reinforces the idea that avoiding USDT-based leverage can lead to more stable and controlled price exposure.