Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• • Price tested key resistance at $0.001635 before reversing lower.
• • RSI moved into overbought territory, indicating possible short-term correction.
• • Volatility expanded midday with a sharp rally, but volume failed to confirm the move.
• • Bollinger Bands tightened overnight, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• • 24-hour turnover surged on bearish momentum as price closed below the 50-period MA.

The Notcoin/Tether pair (NOTUSDT) opened at $0.001617 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.001622 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. The daily range saw a high of $0.001658 and a low of $0.001579. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 681 million NOT tokens, with a notional turnover of roughly $109.7 million, based on the weighted average price.

Price action reflected a clear bearish bias during the overnight and early morning hours, with several long bearish shadows and rejection patterns forming near key resistance levels. A bullish reversal was attempted during the early New York session, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerging around $0.001625. However, this failed to hold as bearish momentum reasserted itself, with price retreating toward $0.001622 at the close.

Key technical indicators signaled a mixed picture. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a near-term bearish tilt. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also dipped below the 200-period MA, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The RSI reached overbought levels during the morning rally but quickly reversed into neutral territory, indicating possible exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence as price made higher lows but the histogram made lower highs in the morning, hinting at waning bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands exhibited a period of tightening overnight, which often precedes a breakout or breakdown. Price eventually broke above the upper band during the morning, only to fall back into the channel by the close. The narrow consolidation during the early hours suggests a possible continuation pattern is forming, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the morning rally at $0.001623 acting as a potential near-term pivot point.

The bearish bias remains intact for the next 24 hours, with a possible test of the 0.001615 support level if the current bearish momentum continues. A break below this level could bring the 0.001605 psychological level into focus. On the flip side, a sustained rebound above $0.001635 could indicate a short-term reversal in sentiment, though this would require confirmation from both volume and price action.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy to backtest using this data could involve a mean-reversion setup around the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, triggered by RSI crossing above 70 (overbought) and MACD divergence. The hypothesis would enter a short position when price closes below the 50-period MA after such a signal, with a stop-loss set at the recent swing high and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci support level (e.g., 61.8% at $0.001623). This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum during overextended rallies while minimizing exposure to false breakouts. Given today's price action, this strategy would have triggered a short entry during the morning rally, aligning with the observed bearish reversal in the afternoon.