Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) - 2025-10-04

• Price traded in a tight range early before breaking lower, closing below the 15-minute MA20
• Volume surged during the early hours before tapering off, indicating fading selling pressure
• RSI reached oversold territory by the end of the day, hinting at possible short-term bounce potential
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility early, expanding slightly in the afternoon before contracting
• Fibonacci levels indicate a possible near-term support at 0.001585 and key resistance at 0.001627

Price and Volume Action

The 24-hour session for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.001614 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001588 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The price moved within a range of 0.001566 to 0.001649, with a closing price of 0.001588. Total volume for the session was 462,357,036.00, and notional turnover reached $748,081.68. The price action reflected a bearish bias, with a breakdown below the 15-minute MA20.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute MA20 was breached and remained below it for much of the session, confirming a short-term bearish trend. On the RSI, the indicator approached oversold levels near 30, suggesting the market may be nearing a short-term bottom. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram narrowing, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing.

Volatility and Support/Resistance

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow range early in the session before expanding slightly in the afternoon. Price remained below the 20-period upper band, signaling weak volatility. Fibonacci retracements identified a key support level at 0.001585 and a resistance at 0.001627. A potential reversal may occur if price stabilizes above 0.001585, but a breakdown below that would signal further weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests using a combination of RSI and Bollinger Band breakouts for entry and exit signals. Specifically, a buy signal is generated when RSI crosses above 30 and price closes above the lower Bollinger Band, while a sell signal is triggered when RSI drops below 70 and price closes below the upper band. This strategy would have captured the early bearish momentum and the possible short-term bounce in the afternoon. Given the current conditions, this approach could provide a viable edge in the near term.