Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) - 2025-09-20

• NOTUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, with bearish momentum dominating the latter half of the session.
• Price tested key support levels and failed to close above 0.001865 in the final 8 hours.
• Volatility increased after 19:00 ET with multiple large-volume bearish candles.
• RSI and MACD signals confirmed bearish momentum, with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 19:00 ET, indicating elevated risk of further downside.

Market Overview

Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) opened at 0.001879 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour window, reaching a low of 0.001831 before stabilizing at 0.001848 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. Total volume was 197,293,301.0 tokens with a notional turnover of approximately $358,796 at the 12:00 ET close.

1. Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern indicates bearish control over the last 8 hours, with a series of dark cloud cover and bearish engulfing patterns forming after 19:00 ET. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.001845, as the price has tested this level multiple times without breaking below it. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with this support, which could indicate a possible temporary halt to the downward trend.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained bearish, with the price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day moving averages are converging, suggesting an ongoing bearish trend. If the price closes below 0.001845, the 200-day moving average could come into play as a stronger support level.

3. MACD & RSI

The RSI has remained below 50 for most of the 24-hour period, dipping to 42 in the early morning hours, indicating moderate bearish momentum but not extreme oversold conditions. The MACD line crossed below the signal line late on 2025-09-19, confirming a bearish crossover that has persisted into the morning of 2025-09-20. Divergence between price and MACD is not present at this time, suggesting confirmation of the bearish trend.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands began to widen after 19:00 ET as volatility increased, with the price trading at the lower band for much of the night. This suggests the market is experiencing heightened uncertainty or anticipation of a larger move. A price rebound above the middle band may indicate a potential short-term reversal, but this would require confirmation through a bullish close.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked between 19:00 ET and 00:00 ET, coinciding with the key bearish price action and formation of the 0.001845 support level. The price has remained in a lower volume range since then, indicating possible consolidation or waiting for further catalysts. The absence of price-volume divergence suggests that the bearish trend has support from market participants.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.00189 to 0.001831, the 61.8% level is at 0.001845, coinciding with the observed support. On the daily chart, a similar 61.8% retracement level may act as a psychological support if the downtrend continues. The 38.2% level at 0.001866 may serve as a potential resistance level should the price attempt a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a multi-timeframe approach, combining RSI and MACD signals with Fibonacci levels to identify potential entry points during consolidation phases. Based on the recent price behavior, a short-term entry might be triggered if the price retests 0.001845 and breaks below it with rising volume. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.001866 resistance level, while a take-profit might be aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the larger downtrend. This strategy would require tight risk management, given the heightened volatility and bearish momentum observed in the past 24 hours.