Market Overview for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) on 2025-09-17

• Notcoin/Tether fluctuated between 0.001848 and 0.001911, closing at 0.001863 after a bearish reversal.
• Momentum declined as RSI fell into oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with Bollinger Bands widening, but volume did not confirm strength.
• A key support at 0.001860-0.001865 held, but a breakdown below could trigger further bearish pressure.

The 24-hour session for Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) saw price action open at 0.001884 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.001911 and a low of 0.001848 before closing at 0.001863 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. Total trading volume amounted to 469,239,451.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $868,929 based on the price range. The price showed a bearish reversal in the second half of the day, marked by a long upper shadow and weak closing.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a key support zone between 0.001860 and 0.001865, which held during multiple retests. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident around 2025-09-17 05:30 and 06:00 ET, signaling increased bear pressure. A doji candle around 2025-09-17 04:30 ET suggested indecision among traders near the 0.001873 level. The overall pattern implies a continuation of bearish sentiment unless price breaks above the 0.001885 resistance level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) and 50-period MA were closely aligned, with price fluctuating slightly above and below. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines showed a bearish alignment, with price below all three, reinforcing a downtrend. Price failed to close above the 50-period MA for most of the session, suggesting a lack of near-term bullish conviction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram, reinforcing the downward momentum. The RSI fell into oversold territory, reaching a low of approximately 35, which could indicate a potential bounce. However, RSI divergence was not strong enough to confirm a reversal. Traders should watch for a RSI rebound above 50 as a sign of stabilizing momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the mid-session hours as the price moved between the outer Bollinger Bands. A contraction was noted in the early morning hours, but it did not form a valid consolidation pattern. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, which is typically a sign of oversold conditions and a potential reversal signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the mid-session and late-night hours (ET), with the most intense activity around 03:00–04:00 ET and again at 05:30–07:00 ET. These spikes coincided with bearish moves, confirming the downward bias. Notional turnover did not align closely with the price action, suggesting some divergence between volume and price strength. This may indicate a weaker move than volume would suggest.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 38.2% (0.001872) held during the mid-session but failed to provide lasting support. The 61.8% retracement at 0.001855 formed a potential support zone, which was briefly tested but not decisively held. A breakdown below this level would confirm a deeper retracement toward 0.001848.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position on NOTUSDT when the price closes below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI falls below 40, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period SMA. The strategy also includes a dynamic take-profit level based on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish swing. Given today’s price action, the conditions were met at key moments (notably around 05:30–06:00 ET), and the strategy would have generated a signal. The execution was largely confirmed by the bearish price close and volume confirmation. However, the RSI dipping into oversold territory may suggest the strategy could benefit from a trailing stop or partial profit-taking to avoid false breakouts.