Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) declined by 5.8% over the past 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Volatility surged midday before stabilizing, with a large volume spike signaling heightened interest.
• RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, though bearish momentum remains intact.
• Price broke below the 20-period MA, with a possible test of the 0.3315–0.3345 consolidation zone ahead.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.3342 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3303 on October 4 at the same time. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 0.3447 to a low of 0.3278. Total volume reached 2,928,766.2 USDT, with notional turnover hitting $984,835. The price action revealed a bearish bias amid high volatility and shifting momentum, setting up potential for a continuation or consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data showed a bearish breakdown from the 0.3400–0.3445 resistance cluster following a failed rally into the 0.3447 high. A large bearish candle closed the 10:15–10:30 ET window (time zone adjusted), forming a dark cloud cover pattern. Key support levels emerged at 0.3345 and 0.3315, both tested during the 4–5-hour bearish leg. A bullish engulfing pattern near the 0.3355–0.3375 range suggests a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart has been bearishly aligned with the 50-period MA, both crossing below the price in a death cross formation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at ~0.3395, while the 200-period MA is at ~0.3425. The price remains below both major MAs, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram on the 15-minute chart turned negative after an earlier bearish crossover, reflecting fading bullish momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory (~28) by 10:00–10:30 ET, hinting at a possible short-covering or reversal. However, volume did not confirm the bounce, indicating caution.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower band of a widening Bollinger Band setup during the 0.3281–0.3345 selloff, with volatility peaking around the 0.3300–0.3315 area. This contraction may set up for a breakout in either direction, though bearish bias is stronger.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover surged during the 20:15–20:45 ET (adjusted) bearish move, aligning with the breakdown from 0.3445 to 0.3404. However, price failed to sustain above 0.3400 afterward, indicating potential distribution. A divergence appears in the final 3 hours as volume declined despite a price rebound into the 0.3355–0.3375 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 0.3447–0.3345 swing shows the 38.2% retracement at 0.3398 and the 61.8% level at 0.3372, both tested during the 08:00–10:00 ET recovery. The 50% level at 0.3396 was rejected, suggesting a potential pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could involve entering long positions upon a close above the 0.3355–0.3375 range with a stop-loss below 0.3330 and a take-profit at 0.3385–0.3400. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered on a break below 0.3315 with a stop above 0.3335 and a target of 0.3275–0.3290. The strategy relies on the 20/50 MA crossover for confirmation and MACD divergence as a secondary filter. This aligns with the observed price structure and volume behavior, particularly during the final hours of the 24-hour window.

The forward-looking view suggests a test of 0.3315 as the key near-term support, with a possible bounce back into the 0.3350–0.3370 range. However, a break below 0.3300 could accelerate the move toward 0.3275–0.3285. Investors should remain cautious of divergent volume patterns and monitor the 0.3355–0.3375 range as a potential reversal catalyst.