Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT): Downtrend Intensifies with Oversold Momentum

• Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) experienced a bearish 24-hour close after forming a bearish inside bar pattern around 06:15 ET.
• Price dropped from 0.3351 to 0.3131, with key support found near 0.314–0.315 and resistance at 0.325–0.326.
• RSI oversold territory and Bollinger Band contraction suggest potential for a short-term rebound.
• High volume observed in the final 6 hours of the cycle, signaling increased bearish conviction.
• Turnover exceeded $14.7 million, reflecting strong participation despite the downtrend.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21, Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.3351 and closed at 0.3131 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, forming a bearish 24-hour candle. The pair reached a high of 0.3368 and a low of 0.2972. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 3,353,414.2 units, with notional turnover exceeding $1,060,000, reflecting strong liquidity and heightened bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price moved lower in a well-defined downtrend, forming several key bearish patterns. A significant bearish inside bar appeared at 06:15 ET, where price closed near the session low of 0.3194. This pattern was followed by a confirmed breakdown below the 0.3238 level, suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. Key support levels were identified at 0.314 (multiple touches), 0.313, and 0.311. Resistance levels include 0.325 (tested multiple times), 0.327, and 0.329. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred during the 05:15 ET session, confirming further downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting strong bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross pattern that intensified the bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages remained in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming as price made lower lows while the MACD failed to confirm. The RSI reached 26.3 at 11:45 ET, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the slow stochastic indicator remained bearish, with the %K line below the %D line, indicating continued bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a combination of RSI oversold entry, bearish divergence confirmation, and a stop-loss at the nearest resistance level. Based on this approach, an entry at 0.313 with a stop-loss at 0.320 would have captured the continued bearish move, with a target near 0.305 as the next Fibonacci 61.8% level. Given the current structure and momentum, this setup could serve as a viable short-term bearish strategy for the next 48 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction during the 05:00–06:00 ET session, with the price moving close to the lower band. This contraction is a strong indicator of low volatility, often preceding a breakout or reversal. The subsequent breakdown below the 0.3238 level confirmed the bearish bias. As of 12:00 ET, the price remained near the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure and potential for a follow-through move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the last six hours of the 24-hour window, reaching over 1 million units traded between 06:15 and 12:00 ET. This surge in volume coincided with a sharp drop in price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Notional turnover also spiked during the same period, exceeding $700,000, indicating strong selling pressure and conviction among traders. No notable divergence was observed between price and volume, as both moved in the same direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 0.3238 level, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish move. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is now at 0.305, indicating a potential target for the continuation of the bearish trend. The 38.2% level at 0.318 served as a minor support level earlier in the 24-hour period but failed to hold.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be consolidating near 0.313, with strong bearish momentum and oversold RSI suggesting a potential rebound into the 0.315–0.320 range. However, given the strong volume and bearish divergence, any short-term bounce could be met with renewed selling pressure. Traders should remain cautious of a retest of key support at 0.311 and potential breakdown to 0.305.