Market Overview: Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Price fell to a 24-hour low of $0.1701 amid bearish continuation.• Volatility spiked in the early hours, with volume exceeding 600,000.• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum and bearish divergence.• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility post-12:00 ET as trend deepened.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.1801 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.1920, and closed at $0.1739 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair experienced bearish momentum, falling to a 24-hour low of $0.1701. Total volume exceeded 6.8 million contracts, and notional turnover reached $1.28 million, reflecting heightened interest during downward moves.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern formed a bearish trend, with several bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow in the final candle, suggesting rejection at key support levels. Key support was identified around $0.1700–$0.1720, while resistance clustered near $0.1850–$0.1900. A potential consolidation may form around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.1785 if a reversal occurs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, signaling a short-term bearish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA below both the 100- and 200-period lines, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias. Price remains below all three major MAs, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative for most of the 24 hours, with a bearish divergence in the final 6 hours. RSI has fallen into oversold territory below 30 since 04:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the lack of follow-through in volume implies that the rally may be limited without a strong break above $0.1770.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the bearish leg from 03:00 to 06:00 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $0.1739, with a potential bounce expected if RSI fails to remain oversold. A retest of the upper band at $0.1785–$0.1800 is likely if buying pressure emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked over 600,000 contracts during the 05:30–06:00 ET session, coinciding with a sharp drop to $0.1758. Turnover spiked to a 24-hour high of $125,000 during this period, indicating aggressive bearish activity. A divergence between price and volume in the final 4 hours suggests waning momentum, raising the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.1785 has been a notable zone of rejection multiple times during the 24-hour period. A sustained close above this level would invalidate the immediate bearish case, while a break below $0.1700 could extend the trend to the 78.6% level at $0.1660.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build and run the back-test, we require confirmation on the ticker symbol (e.g., NILUSDT) and the exit rule (fixed 3-day holding or performance for 1, 2, and 3-day exits). Once confirmed, the strategy will pull Bearish Engulfing signals and run a back-test from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-04. The results will provide insights into the effectiveness of using these patterns on the 15-minute chart for short-term entries.

Looking ahead, Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) faces a potential short-term bounce near the $0.1770–$0.1785 level, especially if RSI shows follow-through and volume confirms the reversal. However, a sustained breakdown below $0.1700 could extend the bearish bias, and investors should remain cautious of the widening volatility and potential for extended downside.