Market Overview for Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) on 2025-11-02

• Price declined sharply over 24 hours from $0.2436 to $0.2386, with key support holding around $0.236–$0.238.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but failed to confirm bearish momentum, as RSI remained within moderate levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed recent expansion, suggesting increased volatility, with price near the lower band.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern formed during the decline, reinforcing short-term bearish bias.
• Turnover reached $10.2 million, with divergence between price and volume in the final hours of the session.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.2436 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2386 on 2025-11-02 at the same time. The pair traded as high as $0.2444 and as low as $0.2185, with total volume of 1.09 million units and a turnover of $10.2 million across the 24-hour period. The price action reflects significant bearish momentum, particularly after 14:15 ET on the 2nd, where a sharp breakdown occurred.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of bearish structures including a clear Bearish Engulfing pattern formed at the start of the selloff on 11-02. Price action suggests key support levels forming between $0.236 and $0.238, with a potential reversal in play after the breakdown to $0.22. A breakdown below $0.23 could lead to further testing of prior support levels. Resistance appears to have shifted to $0.24–$0.242, which could become relevant during a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both shifted downward, confirming the bearish trend. The daily chart reveals a similar bearish alignment, with the 50- and 100-period moving averages in a steepening downtrend. Price remains below all three major averages (50, 100, and 200), indicating a strong bearish bias in the short to medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and is showing increasing bearish momentum, especially during the selloff after 14:15 ET. The RSI remains within a moderate range between 30 and 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but confirming a sustained bearish trend. If the RSI dips below 30 in the next 24 hours, that could signal a short-term oversold condition and potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the selloff, indicating increased volatility. Price action has spent most of the day near or below the lower band, suggesting strong bearish pressure. If the price remains below the lower band for extended periods, it could signal continuation of the trend. A move above the middle band would indicate a reversal and a test of key resistance levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the breakdown after 14:15 ET, with a single candle printing $0.2317 on high volume. However, price failed to sustain the move and reversed, indicating weak conviction. Divergence between volume and price in the final hours suggests caution, as large volumes are not translating into sustained price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the breakdown from $0.2444 to $0.2317 aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is often seen as a key support area. A failure to hold above $0.236 would suggest further downside to the next 61.8% level, currently near $0.226. A potential bounce from these levels could test the 38.2% retracement at $0.237–$0.239.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a Bearish Engulfing pattern in the data, a backtest could be constructed to evaluate the historical performance of selling short on such patterns. For this, we would need to specify the asset (e.g., NILUSDT or other crypto pairs), whether to open a new short position or close an existing long, and whether to use daily close prices for both entry and exit. Default settings would assume daily close prices and no additional stop-loss or take-profit rules, as the position is closed at the next day’s close. Once defined, the backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02 to evaluate the strategy's profitability and risk profile.