Market Overview: Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) — 2025-10-28

• NILUSDT traded lower, closing near session lows amid bearish momentum and declining volume.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term buying interest but weak trend strength.
• Bollinger Bands constricted during the night, with price breaking out on weak follow-through.
• Volume surged late in the session, but price failed to sustain gains, hinting at indecision.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early morning, confirming a short-term reversal from prior bullish moves.

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at $0.3025 on 2025-10-27 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2930 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.3055 and a low of $0.2858 over the 24-hour window. Total volume across all 15-minute intervals was 2,507,431.2 with a total notional turnover of approximately $695,979.04. The asset appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp correction late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action on NILUSDT showed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance level near $0.3040–0.3055, which had previously acted as a psychological threshold for buyers. A bearish engulfing candle formed early on 2025-10-28 at $0.2935–0.2903, confirming the reversal. Support levels at $0.2910–0.2900 and $0.2890–0.2880 appear to be forming, with the latter offering a potential pivot for further downward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting the broader trend remains neutral to slightly bearish but without a strong directional bias from longer-term averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the line dipping below the signal line and moving into negative territory, reinforcing short-term weakness. The RSI has fallen below 30, indicating overbought exhaustion and potential for a bounce, although without a clear reversal pattern, the likelihood of a sustained recovery remains uncertain.

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction during the night hours, followed by a weak breakout to the downside. Price remains below the lower band for much of the session, suggesting continued bearish sentiment and a potential test of key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked late in the session, particularly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, coinciding with a brief rally toward $0.2910–0.2920. However, the inability to maintain these levels despite increased volume suggests a lack of conviction among buyers. Turnover also spiked during this period, indicating potential short-term volatility or accumulation activity, though no clear trend emerged.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the recent bearish move from $0.3055 to $0.2858 are at 38.2% ($0.2940) and 61.8% ($0.2900). Price has tested these levels multiple times over the last 24 hours, with the 61.8% retracement now showing increased buying pressure. A break below $0.2900 could trigger further retest of the 78.6% retracement at $0.2876.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy, based on bullish engulfing patterns and a strict 5-day holding period, offers a relevant lens through which to interpret today’s bearish engulfing pattern. If mirrored in a bearish context, the strategy could imply an entry point for short positions following confirmation. However, today’s low follow-through and overbought RSI suggest caution in expecting immediate continuation. The historical performance of such a strategy—using closing prices and no stop-loss—suggests profitability in trending environments, but the current range-bound action may limit efficacy. Investors should consider integrating a volatility filter or adjusting holding periods to align with current conditions.